Home run facts about Kent Hrbek

Kent Hrbek hit 293 career homeruns, all with the Minnesota Twins. 156 of them were hit in the Dome and 235 of them were hit off of righties.

He hit 4 walk off homeruns. And, if you can believe it, 2 inside the park homeruns. The first inside the park homerun was hit Tuesday September 11, 1984 off of Charlie Liebrandt. It came in the 7th inning and scored Mickey Hatcher ahead of him.

Hit hit the most homeruns, 35, against Baltimore. And the most he hit against 1 single pitcher was 7 off of future Twin, Jack Morris.

His very first homerun came off of George Frazier on August 24th, 1981. It gave the Twins a 3-2 lead in the 12th inning beating the Yankees.

His last homerun came about 13 years later on August 6, 1994. It was off of Melido Perez in the Dome.

3 of his homeruns were pinch hit homeruns.

Today in Twins History: 1987

The Twins win 10-5, beating California to move out of a tie for 1st place in the AL West to move 1 game ahead of the Angels.

Blyleven gives up 3 of his 46 homeruns allowed, after setting a record by giving up 50 the season before. He didn’t pitch too poorly but George Frazier got the Win after blowing the save in the 7th.

The offensive hero for the Twins was DH Roy Smalley, going 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 doubles and driving in 3. Steve Lombardozzi hit his first homerun of the season.

Kent Hrbek stole is 2nd base of the season. He ended up the season with 5 SB and 2 CS. It was a straight steal of 2nd. Maybe it was the element of surprise.

Twins Win

The offense comes through "cough" and Redmond knocked a single to right to score Morneau with 1 out in the 11th.

If I was pitching to Redmond I would have 2 right fielders. That dude hits it to right more than seems possible.

Torii Hit in the face

The Twins are struggling to score runs again. But even worse news, Torii Hunter was hit in the mouth by a pitch and was taken to the hospital.

This is what it says on ESPN.com

"Twins star Torii Hunter was hit by a pitch in the mouth from Kansas City's Zack Greinke on Thursday and was taken to a hospital, where he received three stitches.

Hunter was cut on the inside of his mouth. He was listed as day-to-day.
Leading off the bottom of the second inning, Hunter took a 2-2 fastball directly to the mouth. After gathering himself, he took a couple of steps toward Greinke.
Hunter then dropped to the turf near home plate as manager Ron Gardenhire and Minnesota's medical staff ran onto the field.

A stunned-looking Hunter needed a towel to clean up the blood, and Greinke and Royals infielders came over to check on him. After a few minutes, Hunter walked off the field on his own power and received a standing ovation."

Bert agrees with me

Just a quick note, as I am very busy today.

But during last nights game Bert mention something that I have been talking about. He found it odd that the Twins had not been making opposing pitchers work, that they were not seeing a lot of pitches. He focused on how the starters had only pitched 50-60 pitches by the 5th inning.

The 1 problem is that he did not make a judgement on it but was merely making an observation.

Perez, who averages 3.7 pitches per PA in his career, averaged 3.3 last night.

New Low

The Twins lost again. The offense is really failing this team. As I said previously I think the problem is the hitters unwillingness to work the count and take walks.

But a team can not contend if a player like Jason Tyner is your DH and you bat him in the lead off position. This season he is projected to creat 3.5 runs per 27 outs. Last year, in a career year, he created 5 runs per 27 outs. It was a career year and he was slightly above average.

Last season was an abberation. There is no evidence that he will not continue to have an OBP in the low .300s and a SLG to match.

The leadoff batter has more plate appearances than any other player. He should be 1 of your best players at getting on base. Tyner does not do that. If he had to play batting him last is the best option.

This day in History: 1987

Jeff Reardon got his first win as a Twin. But it came at the expense of blowing a save for Mike Smithson. He gave up 2 homeruns for a total of 3 runs over 2 innings. Luckily the Twins loaded the bases and Tom Brunansky scored on a hit by Mark Davidson to end the game with one out.

Slick fielding Devon White hit 1 homerun in his rookie season and Jack Howell hit another homerun as the provided the power and offense for the Angels.

I am getting impatient with the Twin's impatience

As I write this the Twins are about to lose to someone named Fausto Carmona. He hasn't won in a year, and its not because of bad luck, he has a career ERA of 5.42. Again the Twins showed no patience just seeing 3.3 pitches per plate appearance against a pitcher who averages 3.9 pitches per PA in his career.

Impatience is killing the offense on this team, and I think it stems from the manager. Gardy obviously doesn't appreciate patient hitters nor does understand the importance of patience and walking. This is evident in the fact that he has Tyner batting leadoff. Tyner has a career OBA of .310 but he has 56 career SBs.

The league average OBA over the last few years is .333. He is not even average at getting on base and Gardy leads him off.

Baseball has changed. The stolen base and bunt are not as important as they use to be. But Gardy, and he is not alone in this belief, bellieves it is still 1975 when homeruns were much more rare and the stolen base was more important.

Get with the times.

The Twins just lost.

The Twins rank 27th in the league in walks.

Morneau

Justin seems to be choking so far this year. I feel like he is really pressing when he has runners in scoring position. He seems to be swinging at bad pitches and not working the count.

Overall he has a respectable batting line of .274/.361./507.

With runners in scoring position his line is .185/.315/.296. Pretty miserable and it gets worse. He has walked 5 times in this situation and 3 of those times are by intentional walk. So his OBA becomes .241. Basically he has been worthless in in these situations.

He has to start realizing that he has to be more patient. He will start seeing better pitches and will start walking more. And in the long run become a more productive "clutch" hitter.

Twins Lose in KC

The Twins lost the 3rd game of the series to someone called Jorge De La Rosa. Here is a pitcher who walks nearly 6 batters per 9 innings in his career. Here is a pitcher who averages over 4 pitches per PA over his career. Here is a pitcher who has a career 5.43 ERA. Here is a pitcher who has a K:BB ratio of 1.2:1.

Here is a team of Twins hitters who continually swung at the first pitch, who did not work the count, who had only 3.1 pitcher per plate appearance and frankly embarassed themselves scoring just 1 run off of Jorge De La Rosa. It was hard to watch.

So far Morneau is having a decent season but I am worried about one aspect of his game. He seems to be swinging often when there are runners in scoring position. Instead of working the count and getting a good pitch to hit or even walking, he seems to swing at balls way out of the strikezone. I don't know if he is pressing or just feels like he has to be the guy to drive in the runs.

That first at bat in the first inning, with the bases loaded, was a prime example of what I was talking about.

Boof Pitches, Twins still win

I was able to watch the Twins game on FSN's new "Squeeze Play". It as a good way to watch a game if you weren't able to see the game originally.

Boof actually pitched pretty good. 2 of the 5 runs were unearned and he had a 7:1 K:BB ratio. That was good to see, a majority of those strikeouts were on his excellent curveball. Yes he did give up 2 more homeruns.

I believe the homeruns will normalize and his homerun rate will drop for the rest of the season. At this point he has a homerun per flyball % of 39.4%. The league average is around 11%. And it has been statistically shown that a pitcher does not control the HR per flyball percentage so this should normalize and Boof will be a quality pitcher.

Little known facts: Gary Gaetti

Throughout his career Gary led the league in only 4 different "categories".

In 1982 he led the AL in SAc Flies with 13. In 1984 he led the AL in Games Played with 162. In 1987 he led the league in Ground into Double Plays with 25. And in 1999 the oldest player in the NL.

I can attest to the double plays. He killed many a rally for me after Hrbek reached base playing Pursue the Pennant baseball.

This day in Twin's history

20 years ago today the Twins knocked out future Twin Mike Morgan in the first inning without retiring a batter. He gave up 6 runs to take the loss. Gary Gaetti and Roy Smalley provided the 1st inning offense with a homerun each.

Another future Twin John Moses went 4 for 5 in a losing effort.

Trivia Question: Who was the Twin's 4th outfielder in 1987, measured by the number of games played in the outfield? I bet you're wrong, click here for the answer.

Tyner never walks.

Tyner is a patient at the plate as I am holding a plate at Old Country Buffet. He currently has less walks than Cirillo and White. And both have already spent significant time on the DL.

I hate Tyner and then Gardy compounds the mistake that Tyner is basically a 5th outfielder by batting him 2nd. Why?

The lineup adjustments are generally overated but I would really change it by batting Mauer 2nd and move everyone else up 1 spot and drop Tyner to the 9th spot. It would give everyone an extra 17 to 18 plate appearances per season. And it would minimize Tyner's effect on the offense by reducing the number of PAs he has during the season by about 90 , if he played the whole season.

In an everyday lineup like that with all of the hitters moving up1 spot and the best 4 hitters getting extra PAs the lineup from 2 to 5 would score an extra 16 runs.

It doesn't seem like much but with the other hitter moving up a spot the amount of runs would increase it a bit more, closer to 20 runs in a season which equals about 2 wins. 2 wins can mean a lot.

Pick of the Day

If you bet the farm yesterday on my Twins pick you won another farm. But you were nervous there in the 9th.

The System is 9-4 so far this year. I won't show all picks but there are 3 good bets today.

Best underdog: Toronto, they are a slight dog but the System has them at a 3:2 favorite.
Best bet: Pit over LAD, good odds on this bet.
Best favorite: Phi over Cin, even though Howard is out. I think the System sees through Lohse's good early start to the season.

Can Nathan turn it around?

Yes!!!

I wrote about BAPIP in an article last June in "No Defense for Crain" so I won't go over it too much here. But I think it is important to note it when talking about Nathan's trouble's so far this year, they are earily similar to Crain's

It is important to note that Crain improved last year after I posted that article and that I believe the same thing will happen happen to Joe this year.

Nathan has a high BAPIP so far this year, .419. Over 40% of all the balls in play are becoming hits. Combine that with the fact that so far his strikeouts are way down to 3.86 per 9 innings, and you have a pitcher that is not looking good.

Last season he had a BAPIP of .241 and K'ed 12.5 batters per 9 innings. He won't match those numbers but we all know that he will eventually strikeout more hitters and eventually the balls in play will normalize and those hits will become outs.

Its good that it is happening now and the Twins are still winning. When Joe turns it around it will help the Twins even more.

We have nothing to worry about concerning Joe Nathan. The one caveat is that I don't know if Joe is hiding an injury.

Play of the Day: The Twins are favored tonight and I have them at over 2 to 1 favorites and line is -165 so bet the farm.

No other games look too good. The System is up and running again with some adjustements to make it easier to use and to make changes easier. I still have to tweak some of the numbers to include ballpark data and pitcher/batter tendencies. But until then it is still being used.

The System did have the Twins as an underdog last night but did point out that they were a good bet because of the line. It was correct.

Ichiro is overated

That last pitch from Nathan shows why Ichiro is overrated. He has a 3-0 count, there is 1 out, a runner on thrird and down by 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th. What does he do? He swings and pops out.

Thank you Ichiro. Why would you swing there? You are not a big homerun threat, show some patience and let the players behind you drive you in. Thanks again.

He is a great hitter and a valuable asset but because he rarely walks he is overrated.

The M's just ran themselves out of a rally. Wow.

Nathan saves it again. But he have up 3 hits again. He hasn't looked good. I will go into that on my next post.

Also, Bremer made another mistake. He was talking about Kenji Johjima, how he was now eligible to be in the batting race because of his previous game. Because he had 4 plate appearance the day before he was now eligible to be on the leader board. That is correct. But then he went on to say that it was because the M's hadn't played enough games to qualify, due to all of the snow outs. The number of games the M's have played does not matter. A batter is eligible to be in the batting race if he has at least 3.1 PA per TEAM GAME. So it does not matter how many games a team has played compared to the other teams.

The snow outs had nothing to do with the fact that Johjima was not on the leader board until yesterday. Bremer is a smart guy he should know this. Stuff like that really bothers me.

Why do I hate Tyner?

I really do. I just hate players that swing at every pitch when they have no power. He will swing at every pitch and he has yet to hit a homerun, at the major league level.

The wierd things I have always liked Luis Rodriguez. He is the exact opposite of Tyner. He works the count, sees a lot of pitches and because of that he has a walk rate twice as good as Tyner's, .093 per PA and .046 respectively. Also, Lrod sees 3.82 pitches per plate appearance and Tyner sees .5 less per PA. His lack of patience hurts this team, especially now that he is hitting at the top of the order.

I don't think Tyner can continue to be a .330 hitter, and he needs to since he never walks and has no power.

I think with playing time Lrod can be a decent backup infielder.

Torii hit a Grand Slam

He just hit it. Weaver got away with a curve right down the middle on the second pitch then on a 1-2 count Weaver pressed his luck and tossed Torii another curve.

Ooops.

If there is one guy on this team that you don't want to hang a curve to its Torii. The funny thing is, they intentionally walked Morneau to get to Hunter.

Another Ooops.

Nice baserunning

Carl Crawford did his best Cuddyer impression and ran the Rays out of a big inning last night. It was tied 2-2 in the 9th when Nathan allows a single and then Crawford lines a double to right.

"That'll open the floodgates" Steve said, as we watched the game together. I concurred. I thought it was over, 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. In this situation the Rays have a run expectancy of 2.0363. So on average they will score 2 runs.

Yet Crawford kept running to third. Then back to second, yet he did not run back to second with the same enthusiasm that he ran past second.

The throw came in from the outfield Mauer tagged the lead runner and threw to second to complete the improbable and completely stupid double play.

At first, I thought it was completely stupid. It was. Crawfford should have just walked into second. But something else was going on here, Crawford had some sort of brainfart.

When I saw the replay on Baseball Tonight they showed Crawford running from second to third, which is stupid in its own right. He never looked up to see the lead runner, it was almost as if, he did not realize there was another runner. Even so, what was he thinking trying to stretch it to a triple?

Cuddyer has a good arm, there are no outs and there is a runner in front of him.

But if you watch it again it looks like he was going to keep running home. He came to third intending to round third. He rounded second and then came at third at an angle that told me he was going to keep running. I'd be surprised if he intended to slide into third, he did not look like he was going to.

For some reason I think he planned on running home. As much as this does not make sense, watch him. If you can see the camera on him I think you will agree with me. It was a brainfart.

Bert, Bert, Bert

He just said that if Ramon Ortiz doesn't get hurt he will pitch 200 innings this year.

Generally all starting pitchers get 200 innings if they don't get hurt and stay in the rotation.

Thats like saying if I eat 1o Big Macs today I will gain even more weight.

Bert is a keen observer of the obvious.

Sabermetric moment of the year...so far

During Tuesday nights game, Damon came up w/ 2 guys on and no outs with NY leading 3-0.

Bert said "Damon will be bunting here."

I was surprised because I thought their was no way I would ever bunt with Damon in the Yankees lineup, especially up 3-0. Maybe if I was down by a run in the 9th inning or it was tied. Otherwise why would you ever bunt with anyone with that lineup?

Damon took the first pitch and Bert was very surprised and couldn't believe he wasn't bunting, especially "only being up 3 runs".

The next pitch was hit for a homerun. Don't Bunt.

Bert and his focus on wins.

Last night, during the game, Bert kept extolling the virtues of Pettitte. There is nothing wrong with that Andy has been an excellent pitcher throughout his career, especially at the major league level.

Bert didn’t extol the fact that Pettitte had a great ERA over his career of 3.80, giving him an ERA+ of 119. He did not extol his great control, great K:BB ratio or his ability to keep the ball in the park which are all the things a pitcher can control. But Bert went on and on about Andy’s wins and winning percentage.

That is the one thing that he cannot control. Andy is 187-104 but if he would have had neutral run support he would have been 150-109. Bert is 287-250 but if he would have had neutral run support he would have been 324-228. Bert and Andy cannot control their run support. So wins is not a good way to determine the value of a pitcher.

If there is anyone who should understand that it is Bert. Bert is now being blocked from the Hall of Fame because he wasn’t a great pitcher, because he did not win enough games. If Bert thinks he deserves to be in the Hall than he should really start adjusting his thinking on how he rates pitchers.

Who knows how many wins Bert would have had if would have had Pettitte’s run support.

Gardy doesn't understand sample size.

I was listening to the pre-game on the radio before tonights game that made me understand a little more of the brain process of Gardenhire. He just doesn't understand sample size and statistics.

He stated that he should have taken Ponson out sooner but he didn't want Guerrier to face Arod because Arod hits him so well. I knew that Arod couldn't have faced him too many times since Guerrier hasn't been around too long, so I looked it up. Arod has 4 at-bats vs Guerrier.

Now in those at-bats Arod has 2 hits that were homeruns. So yes he has hit him well. But what he must understand is that 4 ABs really doesn't tell us much of how well a hitter does against a certain pitcher.

Generally, batter vs pitcher stats are not good determining factors because the sample size is much too small. You really need a lot of plate appearances to determine how good a hitter is. That number is difficult to determine but the higher the better so 4 ABs really is not enough.

Maybe managers should have to start taking some math classes before they are given a job.

Twins win.

Twins win again. Ortiz pitched very well. It was good to see that our #2 and 3 starters actually pitched better than Santana. I am not a big Ortiz fan but at the price some other pitchers were going for this off-season he was a pretty good deal.

He will continue to pitch well if he can keep his K to BB ratio at 4:1, even if is 3:1 he will probably have a good year.

Is it me or are the strikezones even smaller this year?

I was watching Baseball Tonight and heard a good one last night. Buster Olney was mentioning how good a manager Jim Tracy was in 1-run games after Pittsburgh defeated Houston 5-4. He said Jim Tracy was known for being a good manager in 1-run games.

I thought this statement was laughable because 1-run games are generally decided by luck more so than managing. So in effect, he is saying Jim Tracy is the luckiest manager in baseball.

If there is some skill in managing 1-run games I would like to know that skill. What does Jim Tracy do that other managers don’t do?

I think I know. He has his closer give Craig Biggio a fat pitch that he hit for a homerun that turns a 5-3 game into a 5-4 game. I guess Tracy is a great manager in 1-run games, truly a genius.

I looked up his record in one run games. It actually is pretty good at 166-137. Basically he had a great record in 2 seasons and the rest of the time he hovered around .500 in 1-run games the rest of his career. He is one lucky SOB.

If you have questions on why 1-run games are considered lucky let me know.

Alone in 1st place

The Twins are alone in first place agaijn, just like they ended last season. The bullpen pulled through for the Twins yesterday after Boof had some control issues.

I think he is having trouble controlling his eating, wow!!!

The PoD lost yesterday and it is a close bet again today. None of these have been good bets so far and todays isn't good either. It is another pickem' with the Twins as a very slight favorite so take the dog and Baltimore +120.

Opening night review

Its great to get a win. The offense looked good, the bullpen looked good and Santana was Santana.

Johan starts out poorly every spring. So this was not a surprise. The surprise was that he got the win because the Twins scored 7 runs and it should have been more.

Morneau was thrown out on the basebaths twice. Once at second which was a bad call and at least very close and took a great throw to nail him. But on the second one he was out by a long shot and shouldn't even been sent home on that play. There are at least 4 reasons why you don't send him.

1. Justin isn't known for his wheels.
2. The situation would have been, bases loaded with 1 out. In a situation like that there is a run expectency of 1.65 runs. So on average with the bases loaded and 1 out a team would score 1.65 runs. At this point Bedard seemed to be on the ropes. Torii was up and had already hit a HR off of Bedard.
3. A play at the plate always risks injury in a collision to the runner or the catcher. Why take that chance in this situation, especially with the reigning MVP.
4. Lasty, the ball was a well hit grounder hit right at the RF. It was not a difficult play to make. He did not have to go to his left or right. He simply charged in and threw home. It was not even a good throw and he was out by 6 feet.

Is Scotty Ulger the second coming of Al Newman. Is it really that diificult to find a decent 3rd base coach?

Twins Pick of the day. I have the Twins as a very slight favorite in this game. Bet the O's +120. The Pick was correct yesterday.

Play of the Day

The play of the day will be somewhat limited for a while as input more and more teams into the process and refine the way it works as more players get more playing time.

As of now I have the Twins as a 64.4% chance of winning. The line is Santana -220. So it would be a large bet to win 100. But a fairly safe bet.

Opening Day

Its here.

I haven't finished my preview but I think that you could read other accounts and get the same or better information. Plus I have been too busy.

Basically the outfiled is good in center and right but again left is the weak spot. But it should improve. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a dropoff by Tori and Cuddy. They bothe had much better seasons than they have ever had before.

The pitching is scary beyond the bullpen and Santana. All I have to say is Silva. Silva is quickly becoming a curse word in my home.

Quick predictions. Clevland and the Twins fight it out over the entire season. If I had to bet I would bet on Cleveland winning the Central. But they have been my pick the last few years.

Chicago is getting old fast, Detroit is bound to come back to earth.

Lets go Twins.