Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Tonight's Matchup

Carlos Silva vs. Wandy Rodriguez

Tonight's matchup does not look too good for the Twins, at first glance. But even though I am not a Silva fan I think this matchup looks OK for the Twins.

First, Silva has been improving and pitching better lately than his stats show. Plus, as bad as his ERA is, 7.07. His Defense Independent Pitching Stats (DIPS) have him with an ERA of 5.79. DIPS is determined, basically, by looking at the stats a pitcher can control, strikeouts, walks and homeruns. It looks at those stats and figures out what the pitcher's ERA would be with an average defense, meaning what would a pitchers ERA be if he had an average BAPIP.

Wandy's DIPS is 4.88. It is a full run better than Silva's but with the improving Silva, the improving offense and the improving defense I think we can be very competitive.

Also, if we keep it close our bullpen will outpitch their bullpen.

It also depends on how many lefty Wandy sees. He has been incredible against lefthanders, holding them to an OPS of .563. His OPS versus righthanders is a Silva like OPS of.903. So if we give 2 of our lefthanders a break tonight I think we can win this one. I would give Kubel a rest and one of the M&M boys a rest.


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