A tale of two relievers.
Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan are two of the Twins best relievers. Neshek is having a fantastic season while Nathan seems to be struggling at times. He has a decent ERA but has given up 41 baserunners in 30 innings while Neshek has given up only 26 baserunners in 34 innings pitched. Pat’s ERA is a stellar 1.05 while Joe’s is a very good 2.37. 
It seems Joe has worked in and out of trouble all season. Though he has pitched a 1-2-3 inning in 11 of 30 appearances it does seem he has been lucky to get out of trouble at times. Does Carl Crawford ring a bell? Francisco Cordero has had a 1-2-3 inning in 14 of his 33 appearances this year, for comparison.
The opposite seems to be in effect for Pat Neshek. He has pitched great all year and never seems to in trouble at all. In fact he has only given up 4 runs all season. All came on 2 different pitches, a 3 run homerun to Raul Ibanez and a homerun to Alex Rios. In the rest of his appearances he allowed no runs.
I expect the fortunes of these two pitchers to change and in fact reverse over rest of the season. The main reason is that both have diametrically opposed Defense Efficiency Ratings (DER). Pat has a DER of .842, one of the best in the league, and Joe’s is .635.
The current thinking is that pitchers have relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. There are some caveats to this but for the most part I believe it to be true. And if it is true both players will start to move towards the league average of .685. In doing so, the numbers of Joe will improve while Pat’s will decline.
But the one thing they both will probably do is give up more homeruns. They both have homerun per flyball percentages around 5%. The league average is around 11%.
All of this may be obvious. There is no way that Pat can keep up his current pace. I just think it is good to look behind the numbers to see what is really happening.
Sunday’s game is Joes’ season in a microcosm. He gives up a weak, high flyball which the defense does not turn into an out. And in this case it turns in to a homerun. All season he has been giving up balls in play that defense has not turned into outs. A lot of luck goes into this. A bloop here, a texas leaguer there, and a slow roller will make a good pitcher look bad.
Matt Guerrier will also be due for a drop-off for the same reason as Pat. The one thing they all have going for them is that they have very good strikeout to walk ratios of about 3 to 1. They are all very good pitchers but due for a big drop in effectiveness.
It seems Joe has worked in and out of trouble all season. Though he has pitched a 1-2-3 inning in 11 of 30 appearances it does seem he has been lucky to get out of trouble at times. Does Carl Crawford ring a bell? Francisco Cordero has had a 1-2-3 inning in 14 of his 33 appearances this year, for comparison.
The opposite seems to be in effect for Pat Neshek. He has pitched great all year and never seems to in trouble at all. In fact he has only given up 4 runs all season. All came on 2 different pitches, a 3 run homerun to Raul Ibanez and a homerun to Alex Rios. In the rest of his appearances he allowed no runs.
I expect the fortunes of these two pitchers to change and in fact reverse over rest of the season. The main reason is that both have diametrically opposed Defense Efficiency Ratings (DER). Pat has a DER of .842, one of the best in the league, and Joe’s is .635.
The current thinking is that pitchers have relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. There are some caveats to this but for the most part I believe it to be true. And if it is true both players will start to move towards the league average of .685. In doing so, the numbers of Joe will improve while Pat’s will decline.
But the one thing they both will probably do is give up more homeruns. They both have homerun per flyball percentages around 5%. The league average is around 11%.
All of this may be obvious. There is no way that Pat can keep up his current pace. I just think it is good to look behind the numbers to see what is really happening.
Sunday’s game is Joes’ season in a microcosm. He gives up a weak, high flyball which the defense does not turn into an out. And in this case it turns in to a homerun. All season he has been giving up balls in play that defense has not turned into outs. A lot of luck goes into this. A bloop here, a texas leaguer there, and a slow roller will make a good pitcher look bad.
Matt Guerrier will also be due for a drop-off for the same reason as Pat. The one thing they all have going for them is that they have very good strikeout to walk ratios of about 3 to 1. They are all very good pitchers but due for a big drop in effectiveness.
posted by Todd @ 7:30 AM
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