Thursday, May 31, 2007

Twins win, Baker fails.

Twins swept the Sox on a walk-off walk by Torii Hunter. That is good to see. I like to see the Twins win by being patient. Now I hope they can be patient with Baker.

I think Scott Baker is a decent pitcher who has had some bad luck. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think he will ever be a great pitcher but he could be a quality innings eater if given a chance.

Last season Scott had some bad luck, his actual performance was not as bad as his ERA showed. In only 83 innings he had an ERA of 6.37 but his DIPS was a much more manageable 4.71. Hardballtimes gives him a FIP of 5.07 and an xFIP of 4.95. This shows that he had some bad luck to have such a high ERA. If he was allowed to play the entire season random chance would have equaled out, most likely, and his ERA would have been more manageable.

Because of this Baseball Prospectus projected Scott to have an ERA of 4.93, again, not great, but manageable.

This year so far he has had 1 good start 1 bad start and 1 mediocre start. And his numbers bear out again that he is pitching a little better than his ERA shows. His ERA is 5.94 and his DIPS and FIP are both slightly lower but it is his xFIP that is very good showing a decent 4.07 ERA.

His big problem has always been the homerun. This season he is still having that problem but given a chance the homerun rate against him should start to move toward the mean. Right now his HR per Flyball is almost 30% which nearly 3 times the league average. This number should and will drop and he will then appear to be a more effective pitcher.

On the other side of the issue Silva’s HR/F rate is a miniscule 6.9%. This probably won’t stay at this rate and his ERA will probably rise.

The one thing that has plagued Baker his whole career is the home run ball. It should continue to improve this season not just because of his high home run per flyball rate but also because it looks like he is throwing more groundballs. It is early but his groundball to flyball rate is a career high 1.75. And his overall groundball percentage is 50%. This includes outs and non-outs.

Scott Baker should improve if given the chance this season. I hope Gardy gives him the same chance that he has given veterans in the past.

Pick of the Day: Yesterday’s 2 best bets worked well. The longshot was a loser but that happens. Overall the System had another winning day after having its worse day on Tuesday after its best ever on Monday.

Best Favorite: SD -135, Tor is also a decent favorite at -160.

Best Underdog: TEX +127 is a very good bet and SF +130 is too.

Longshot: Bal +175.


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