Tuesday, August 29, 2006

The rotation

The Twins defense is still improving. The Defense Efficiency Rating has improved a great deal since the release of Batista and trade of Castro. On June 27th their DER was .667 and last in the league they have improved to .683 and 24th in the league. It is still not very good but obvious improvement has really helped the pitching staff.

Now the pitching is still the problem. It has improved dramatically since June but now with injuries, trades and bad play the starting rotation is in shambles.

Sanatana is the only constant. He is still the best pitcher in the league.

Radke is hurt and who knows how much he will pitch again. But when he does pitch he has done pretty well in last few months.

Silva is, was and will always be horrible. His ERA is 7.07 and his peripherals are horrible too. He has too many homeruns allowed, is control isn’t as good as it used to be and since he doesn’t strike any one out he gives up too many hits. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which is similar to DIPS is 6.00. So even with a little luck and better defense he still would be a crappy meatballer.

It is time to remove Silva from the rotation. Actually, it was time about 2 months ago. But who do you replace him with?

There are 2 answers. One is Guerrier. He has pitched well in the bullpen and has an ERA of 2.72 and good peripherals with a FIP of 3.71. Both would probably rise if he was a starter but it would still be better than Silva.

Baker is the other choice. He has not pitched well when he has pitched with an ERA of 6.93 but he is FIP is a very manageable 5.23. He does seem to get the ball up too much but at least he has a good amount of strikeouts and very good control. It would be nice to see him pitch consistently now that the Twins have a major league defense.

Also, Liriano may be returning with a few weeks. Then the rotation would be much better. Bonser and Garza are improving after a rough start. Things are not as bad as they seem to be, as long as Silva no longer pitches fort the Twins. He has shown that he doesn’t have the stuff to pitch even with a good defense behind him. Give the young guys a shot to show that they can pitch with a better defense.

My dream rotation is Santana, Liriano, Radke, Bonser and Garza. If all injuries get worse I would go with Santana, Bonzer, Garza, Baker and Guerrier.

My real dream would be a 4 man rotation, but that won’t happen.


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