Todd's Twins

Gary Gaetti

2007-08-22T13:37:00.000-07:00

Aaron Gleeman reposted his Twin's rankings on Gaetti so I decided to write about him today also.

I always loved Gaetti and his '88 card in Pursue the Pennant was awseome except for the fact that he was injury prone.

Like most Twins, his '88 season was actually better than his '87 season.

I don't want to blame it on religion, but there was talk of religion taking away his focus from baseball. Which is fine with me, I am not judging.

After he was hurt in '88 he found god during rehab and fell out of Hrbek's clique and into Gagne's "clique" and he became a born again christian.

Again I am not judging, I think it is perfectly fine and exceptable to find god.
In fact, it might have been a good thing for his career. He probably wouldn't have lasted as long if he would have kept drinking and smoking.

My only regret for him is that he and Hrbek grew apart. Up intil the injury they had been inseparable.

I rememeber the All Star game (I think it was '88) where Gaetti played and wrote T.Rex on his hand in honor of Hrbek and showed it to the camera as he was introduced.

T. Rex was Hrbie's wrestling name.

They were a cute couple.

I told you so

2007-08-06T08:50:00.000-07:00

Baker has done it again. He pitched a great game, shutting out the powerful Cleveland Indians for 8 innings.

Like many young pitchers he has been inconsistent. He has hade a few bad starts but he has had many good and some great starts. His ERA is abaout average. So he isn't a star but as he pitches more I believe he will just get better and be a very big part of the Twin's future success.

His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.84. So if he his defense was playing better he would be having an excellent season.

He will probably suffer from the long ball as time goes on, much like Santana. But if his strikeout to walk ratio improves from the already great ratio of 3.7:1, he will be a quallity pitcher for years to come.

I would say that the league should watch out for the Twins but I don't really think the league has to fear a team who has Tyner as a leadoff hitter. Or a team that has a manager who thinks Tyner is a leadoff hitter.

One positive is that Tyner is having the best walk rate and homerun rate of his career!!! He has already walked 11 times!!! He is only 4 walks away from his career high of 15 in 2001 which is the only season he played more than 100 games.

Catch up

2007-08-01T08:13:00.000-07:00

I have been very busy the last few weeks but I will be back soon.

Its over

2007-07-19T15:22:00.000-07:00

The Twins were swept in a 3 game series at home against Detroit. Detroit is a good team and they were all 1 run games so if the Twins would have had a little luck they could have easily been the sweeper rather than the sweepee.

Wait, they did have a little luck, Leyland still insists to use the very below average Todd Jones as his closer. I liked the Twins chances to come back in every one of those games. He is not a good closer, he allows way too many baserunners and has way too high of an ERA.

It would be like using Rincon as the Twins closer!!!

It shouldn't have been difficult to come back on Det with their best too relievers on the DL. What a choke-fest. Did somebody tell them that this was the playoffs?

Dick gets it wrong again.

2007-07-16T08:38:00.000-07:00

The Twins completed a very good sweep of the Oakland A’s. They pitched well and hit OK. Basically, everyone did pitch pretty well. Did they pitch well or are the A’s just that bad offensively? Probably both.

Speak of the A’s bad offense did you hear Dick talk about the 3 worst offenses in the league on Friday night. It was another example of him not understanding what the important elements at scoring runs.

He went on and on about Texas, Chicago and Oakland being the worst offenses in the league.

That made me curious, were they really? Knowing Dick I figured he did not really mean the worst offense but he probably meant the worst hitting team ranked by batting average. I was right.

Sometimes the worst hitting teams are indeed the worst at scoring runs, but not always. As most of us know, it takes more than batting average to score runs. In fact, OBP and SLG are much integral than AVG at determining the amount of runs scored.

So how bad are the bottom three teams that Dick was talking about? Well Texas, Oakland and Chicago are indeed the worst hitting teams. But Texas is a much better team at scoring runs than the other two teams. They rank 7th in the league at runs scored but are in a virtual tie with four other teams for 4th in runs scored.

Chicago and Texas play in hitters parks while Oakland plays in a pitchers park. So Chicago is indeed the worst offensive team in the league

DH answer?

2007-07-13T05:20:00.000-07:00

The Twins called up Garrett Jones again and started him at DH. But he is not the answer at DH. His minor league numbers show that he does not have a very high OBP. And so far this season at AAA it is .317.

With that being said he is still a better choice at DH than Tyner or Ford. He has some homerun potential at least.

Its time for Terry Ryan to decide if he wants to make a run at the playoffs or not. Shit or get off the pot!!! As they are now, the Twins are not good enough to make the playoffs. The rotation is young but decent and they have some quality hitters but they have some huge holes to fill at third and at DH.

Finding a DH should not be that hard. Either you want to make run this year or wait until next year. But next year Torii probably won't be with the Twins so there will be 1 more hole to fill in the lineup. So this is the season to make the run. Trade a young pitcher and get a quality DH and third baseman here.

If not trade Torii for some decent prospects and give up on the season. They are going no where with the lineup as it is now.

Today's matchup Blanton vs Santana. I have the Twins as the 69% favorites.

2007-07-08T17:01:00.000-07:00

The Twins need another hitter. They need either a 3B or LF/DH. Those are by far their weakest positions. I think Kubel will eventually be a decent leftfielder so 3B and DH are the biggest need.

There has been a lot of talk of trading for Wiggington. I am not a big fan. He does have some pop in his bat, he has 13 homeruns so far, but his OBP isn’t much higher than the current Twin’s 3B. His numbers are .268/.316/.439, with an OPS of .755. And he creates 4.59 runs per game. And the worst thing about him is his very dramatic platoon splits.

His OPS vs lefties is .976 and it is .300 points less vs righties. He creates 3.68 R/G vs righties and 7.25 vs lefties. There is no bigger upside for Ty. This is his average season and he is too old to all of a sudden make a dramatic improvement.

I don’t see this as much of a step up from Punto. Ty obviously has much more power but not so much that he is worth trading a prospect for.

Punto has better defense and will most likely improve at the plate over the rest of the season. Punto has a Zone Rating of .722, Ty’s is a dismal .636.

While Punto is not the answer at third Wiggington does not solve the problems the Twins have at that position. Trading for him would be a knee jerk reaction to a poor situation.

The best bet would be to somehow get Adam Dunn on the Twins. But according to Jim Souhan this morning, Dunn is overrated. Yeah, who wants a player with a high OBP and SLG? The Twins really need a truly overrated 3B.

Dramatic Chipmunk

2007-07-02T13:37:00.001-07:00

You need sound to really appreciat this one.

Tyner is leading off

2007-06-28T11:40:00.000-07:00

Jason Tyner is leading off. Jason effing Tyner. This shows how little understanding Gardenhire has of what a hitters job is to do.

It is to get on base and not make outs. Tyner is not good at either of those things. I assume he is leading off because of his "speed". But he doesn't even steal that often. And does he really take that "extra base" more than anyone else does. I would lead Kubel off before Tyner. He shows a propensity tto walk at least. And willl be in scoring position more often because he has hit an extra-base hit or two so far in his short career.
Hell, Cuddyer would be a much better leadoff hitter than Tyner.

Ouch

2007-06-27T13:09:00.000-07:00

I can't stop laughing after seeing this. Watch the kid running.

Twins first round draft pick

2007-06-25T08:33:00.000-07:00

The Twins drafted Ben Revere, a speedy outfielder with limited power. It sounds like Tyner. Check-out what the Hardballtimes says about him.

A tale of two relievers.

2007-06-22T07:30:00.000-07:00

Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan are two of the Twins best relievers. Neshek is having a fantastic season while Nathan seems to be struggling at times. He has a decent ERA but has given up 41 baserunners in 30 innings while Neshek has given up only 26 baserunners in 34 innings pitched. Pat’s ERA is a stellar 1.05 while Joe’s is a very good 2.37.

It seems Joe has worked in and out of trouble all season. Though he has pitched a 1-2-3 inning in 11 of 30 appearances it does seem he has been lucky to get out of trouble at times. Does Carl Crawford ring a bell? Francisco Cordero has had a 1-2-3 inning in 14 of his 33 appearances this year, for comparison.

The opposite seems to be in effect for Pat Neshek. He has pitched great all year and never seems to in trouble at all. In fact he has only given up 4 runs all season. All came on 2 different pitches, a 3 run homerun to Raul Ibanez and a homerun to Alex Rios. In the rest of his appearances he allowed no runs.

I expect the fortunes of these two pitchers to change and in fact reverse over rest of the season. The main reason is that both have diametrically opposed Defense Efficiency Ratings (DER). Pat has a DER of .842, one of the best in the league, and Joe’s is .635.

The current thinking is that pitchers have relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. There are some caveats to this but for the most part I believe it to be true. And if it is true both players will start to move towards the league average of .685. In doing so, the numbers of Joe will improve while Pat’s will decline.

But the one thing they both will probably do is give up more homeruns. They both have homerun per flyball percentages around 5%. The league average is around 11%.

All of this may be obvious. There is no way that Pat can keep up his current pace. I just think it is good to look behind the numbers to see what is really happening.

Sunday’s game is Joes’ season in a microcosm. He gives up a weak, high flyball which the defense does not turn into an out. And in this case it turns in to a homerun. All season he has been giving up balls in play that defense has not turned into outs. A lot of luck goes into this. A bloop here, a texas leaguer there, and a slow roller will make a good pitcher look bad.

Matt Guerrier will also be due for a drop-off for the same reason as Pat. The one thing they all have going for them is that they have very good strikeout to walk ratios of about 3 to 1. They are all very good pitchers but due for a big drop in effectiveness.

New Poll

2007-06-21T15:05:00.000-07:00

There is a new poll. Please take a look and give me some ideas of what is important to you and what you would like to see more discussion of on this blog.

According to past polls Liriano was going to win the Cy Young award last season. Jason Tyner should rarely be in the lineup and if he is he should be at the bottom of the lineup. The Twins should trade a pitching prospect for a hitter. And lastly, the Twins should be patient with Scott Baker, but trading before his value drops too low is a close second.

Let me know what you would like to see, your comments are much appreciated.

And for absolutely no reason I have included a picture of my dog. The wife likes to dress her up for holidays. And in our house Halloween is a major holiday. See what I have to live with. And yes, the one ear never goes up.

Johan shaved Bert's head...

2007-06-20T18:49:00.000-07:00

...and I think he nicked his brain.

Bert just said, about Guerrier. " Its his first debut at Shea Stadium."

Also, Gladden caught 2 balls during the broadcast and after the 2nd one he said (paraphrasing) "I got 2 balls tonight." Gordo then said "Its a rare night to have 2 balls."

Tyner again.

2007-06-19T21:07:00.000-07:00

Johan worked out a walk and hit a double tonight. He should be the Twins DH. He has shown the plate patience that Tyner has not shown.In his career as a hitter Johan now walks in 3.5% of his plate appearances and Tyner has walked in 4.5% of his plate appearances.

Why is it so hard not to swing the bat. Watch how Mauer approaches an AB, hell watch how Johan approaches an AB.

He must think that if he keeps swinging he will eventually hit a homerun. It is really not worth it.

Somehow Sosa walked Tyner in the 3rd. I missed the at bat so I don’t know exactly how it happened.

The next inning, Tyner had the kind of at bat that I hate. He somehow worked the count to 3-1 and Sosa threw ball low and inside and so Tyner, halving already reached his walk quota for the month, swung and missed. Then on 3-2 Sosa threw a high fastball that also would have been ball four and grounded out.

The game was basically over then so it really didn’t matter. But it’s the principle. He has no power it makes no sense for that idiot to swing at ball four constantly.

I guess I should be thankful because a two walk game by Tyner would be a sign of the coming apocalypse.

Thank you Jason.

RBIs and sportswriters

2007-06-19T07:26:00.000-07:00

I read Jim Souhan's article in the Pioneer Press yesterday and this quote made me laugh.

"Manager Ron Gardenhire has tried Mike Redmond and Jason Kubel in the No. 6 hole. Redmond puts together good at-bats, but his career-high in RBI is 28. This isn't going to work for the long haul."

Why does it matter what Redmond's career high RBI's are? The amount of RBI's is so dependent on where he bats in the lineup and his teammates that his past RBI totals just don't mattter.

If he was in the 6 hole all season long and had 500 to 600 AB he would easily double or probably triple that total just by being a warm body in the lineup.
I wonder why sportswriters so want to hold on to their old perceptions of baseball? What is the psychology of this.

I believe it has to be a fear of math. It takes some understanding of math and logic to understand how much RBIs are team dependent. If all of your life you are told that batting average and RBIs are what make a good hitter than it will be difficult to change your mind.

As a child I believed ther was a Santa Claus until I saw my uncle dressing up as Santa. I saw the evidence that there was no Santa.

It is not so easy to see the evidence that RBIs are not a good way to evaluate a hitter. You can't just see someone "putting on a Santa suit." You actually have to be proactive and look at the mathematical evidence.

Many people don't like math and don't trust statistics because they do not understand them and feel that they can be twisted to show any facts.

Its too bad because baseball is the one sport where math and statistics can really tell us who the best players are.

I have a feeling that it will be the next generation of sportswriters and TV analysts who will start looking behind the traditional batting numbers of RBIs and average. It will take time but as more and more generations grow up with computers and statistics more people will have a better understanding of the important statistics in baseball.

Joe Morgan can't be a TV analyst forever. He hates computers and is basically Amish when it comes to technology.

New Theory

2007-06-17T19:59:00.000-07:00

Here is my new theory about Tyner. Gardy knows the Twins have no DH. The Twins DHs have been one of the worst DHs in in the league. Also, The Twins don't have anyone off the the bench to pinch hit. So Gardy is using the worst player possible to do both, Tyner.

I use to think he did this because he did not understand Tyner's limitations as a hitter. But now I think he does understand Tyner's limitations. Yes, Gardy understands that Tyner should not be a DH or ever be a pinch hitter but does this to show Terry Ryan how bad this team needs a hitter on the bench to DH or pinch hit.

Gardy would never think it is OK to pinch hit a player with as many career walks as he has stolen bases. Or to DH a player with as many career homeruns as I do.

Its obvious to me now that Gardy is sending Ryan a message to get him a real hitter. Gardy is a genius!!! Hopefully, Ryan has seen the obvious things that Gardy is showing him.

Gardy hates Bartlett

2007-06-14T20:12:00.000-07:00

How much does Gardenhire hate Bartlett if he is willing to pinch hit Tyner for him. So far this season They are basically the same player. In their careers Bartlett has been better and has a better upside. So why would you actually make a move just to put in the same player?

And why tweak the confidence of Bartlett. Gardy has already yanked him around enough. Show some confidence and patience in your shortstop.

Well,Tyner is lefthanded. But it is a crucial situation. There are 2 outs and nobody is on base. The run expectancy is already very low and adding Tyner to the mix doesn't change a thing. So why make a move.

Bartlett must have made a move on one of Gardy's daughter's. Why else would he hate Jason Bartlett so much.

Scott Ulger cost the Twins at least 1 more run

2007-06-12T19:35:00.000-07:00

The third base coach just sent Punto home on a play that wasn't even close. It probably won't cost the Twins the game but it does show a lack of understanding of physics.

There was 1 out, Punto was on 2nd, Castillo hit a hard shot through the hole between 1st and 2nd. It was a well hit ball. Francouer was charging, the ball was hit right to him. It wasn't even going to take a good throw to nail Punto. I assumed Punto would be held at third. He wasn't. He was tagged out easily.

When a ball is hit hard and directly at the rightfielder, who wasn't playing too deep, don't send the damn runner!!!

Scotty, the harder a ball is hit the faster it goes and when the fielder is running straight in, it is easier to get a good strong throw than when he is moving to the left or right.

There is your lesson for today. If he keeps it up, he will be scouting with former thirdbase coach Al Newman.

1 year anniversary of Todd's Twins

2007-06-12T10:04:00.000-07:00

It has been 1 year since my blog started. Here is my first attempt a at a blog entry. Here is one of my early favorite blog entries.

I hate the name Todd's Twins. I should have had a more creative name for a blog.

Adam Dunn

2007-06-12T07:32:00.000-07:00

Steve Phillips was a GM for the NY Mets. Somehow his Mets made it to the World Series but lost. I don’t understand how, this man does not understand baseball.

On ESPN last night someone asked him about possible trades including the Reds. He said that Griffey was the most likely to be traded because he was the teams best commodity. He went on to talk about Adam Dunn.

He said that some teams like him and other teams hate him, mostly because he “ends too many innings and rallies”. Dunn has too many walks, homeruns and strikeouts. Yes, too many walks and homeruns end a rally and innings.

Adam Dunn does strikeout often. He has 83 so far leading the league by a large margin. But how is a strikeout different from other outs? He doesn’t advance the runner as much, no big deal. He doesn’t hit into as many double plays then either.

But he does get on base. He is 15th in the league in walks, giving him a .346 OBP. That isn’t great but it isn’t bad either. It is below his career average of .377.

He has 15 homeruns, tied for 3rd in the league with Griffey. Griffey is having a great season but Dunn is younger and would be more valuable for a longer period of time than Grifffey.

Any out will end and inning and double plays end innings too. As does being caught stealing. Dunn doesn’t do either much in his career. He has hit over 40 HR 3 times in his career and walked over a 100 times 4 times. When you walk you are not making outs therefore you are not ending innings.

A team like the Twins could use a player like Dunn. Please!!

Weekend series

2007-06-11T07:45:00.000-07:00

The Twins take 1 of 3 from the Nationals which can only be described as a major disappointment to lose to one of the worst teams in the NL.

They beat Mike Bacsik after Silva blew up on Friday, big surprise, and after only scoring only 1 run off of former Twin farmhand Levale Speigner. The 1 run allowed lowered his ERA to 7.79. That is not a typo, his ERA before the game was a Ponsonesque 9.10.

I was unable to see the game yesterday but I listened to most of it. Did anyone else think listen? Gladden basically spent the whole time making fun of Bacsik. Since he threw so softly he kept making sarcastic remarks about the speed of his pitches. He even called one the pitches an “81 mph toad-ball”. It was pretty fun but a bit harsh

Mauer is back

2007-06-08T08:47:00.001-07:00

And he will be batting the 2nd spot in the lineup. Yaaaay. It is a good spot for him. Mostly because then it will move Punto out of that spot. Punto gets way too many at bats for a player with a .333 OBP. Mauer's ability to get on base will help this offense a great deal. Especially, since it moves a weak hitter out of the top of lineup.

The effects will be felt throughout the whole lineup. Over the rest of the season Cuddy, Morneau and Hunter will now be getting more at bats which will lead to more runs. Imagine that, giving your best hitters more at bats.

For once Gardy is doing the right thing. But since it such a rebellious even revolutionary thing for Gardy to do, once Mauer starts to struggle or the Twins don't score for a game or two. I bet Gardy shuffles the lineup around and moves everyone back 1 spot in the lineup to make room for Punto or Tyner.

Another good headline

2007-06-08T08:47:00.000-07:00

read this

Slowey debut

2007-06-01T07:57:00.000-07:00

The Twins start a 3 game series tonight with Kevin Slowey making his MLB debut against Joe Kennedy. Slowey has been compared to Radke in the way he pitches. He has great control and so far in AAA this season Slowey has a 10 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

He differs from Radke because he just won’t shut up. I hear he is a talker. Read more about Slowey here.

I have the Twins as slight favorites in the first 2 games than a 2 to 1 favorite with Santana going against Chad Gaudin the third game. Gaudin is second in the league in ERA but he is no Santana.

Pick of the Day:
The System did great yesterday winning big on some and losing on some but overall it was another big day. The picks that I posted did well. The 2 favorites won but the 2 underdogs didn’t. The longshot did pay off though.

Best Favorite: CHN -165, NYA -115

Best Dog: Tex +135, Ari +113. The System also picks PIT over the favorite LAD but it seems not to like Randy Wolf too much. Will see what happens after this game.

The Twins are also a good dog to bet.

Longshot: Baltimore +170.

Twins win, Baker fails.

2007-05-31T07:31:00.000-07:00

Twins swept the Sox on a walk-off walk by Torii Hunter. That is good to see. I like to see the Twins win by being patient. Now I hope they can be patient with Baker.

I think Scott Baker is a decent pitcher who has had some bad luck. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think he will ever be a great pitcher but he could be a quality innings eater if given a chance.

Last season Scott had some bad luck, his actual performance was not as bad as his ERA showed. In only 83 innings he had an ERA of 6.37 but his DIPS was a much more manageable 4.71. Hardballtimes gives him a FIP of 5.07 and an xFIP of 4.95. This shows that he had some bad luck to have such a high ERA. If he was allowed to play the entire season random chance would have equaled out, most likely, and his ERA would have been more manageable.

Because of this Baseball Prospectus projected Scott to have an ERA of 4.93, again, not great, but manageable.

This year so far he has had 1 good start 1 bad start and 1 mediocre start. And his numbers bear out again that he is pitching a little better than his ERA shows. His ERA is 5.94 and his DIPS and FIP are both slightly lower but it is his xFIP that is very good showing a decent 4.07 ERA.

His big problem has always been the homerun. This season he is still having that problem but given a chance the homerun rate against him should start to move toward the mean. Right now his HR per Flyball is almost 30% which nearly 3 times the league average. This number should and will drop and he will then appear to be a more effective pitcher.

On the other side of the issue Silva’s HR/F rate is a miniscule 6.9%. This probably won’t stay at this rate and his ERA will probably rise.

The one thing that has plagued Baker his whole career is the home run ball. It should continue to improve this season not just because of his high home run per flyball rate but also because it looks like he is throwing more groundballs. It is early but his groundball to flyball rate is a career high 1.75. And his overall groundball percentage is 50%. This includes outs and non-outs.

Scott Baker should improve if given the chance this season. I hope Gardy gives him the same chance that he has given veterans in the past.

Pick of the Day: Yesterday’s 2 best bets worked well. The longshot was a loser but that happens. Overall the System had another winning day after having its worse day on Tuesday after its best ever on Monday.

Best Favorite: SD -135, Tor is also a decent favorite at -160.

Best Underdog: TEX +127 is a very good bet and SF +130 is too.

Longshot: Bal +175.

Castro/Batista Part Deux

2007-05-30T08:05:00.000-07:00

The Twins have cut Ponson and demoted Ortiz to the bullpen after the failed experiment of trying out 2 bad, over-the-hill players. The Twins are turning to youth again, just like last year. They learned a bit from last year, though they did make the original mistake again by signing them, this time they are cutting bait sooner than they did last year.

And they are winning.

If they keep this up they will not sign any crappy veterans by the 2010 season.

Baker is already pitching well and Slowey will be making the start Friday against Oakland. They may not be the best pitchers in the league but they only cost about $700,000 while Ponson and Ortiz cost over $4 million. And they project top be much better pitchers than the other 2 slugs.

I am looking forward to the slugs that Ryan will be signing this off season.

Pick of the Day: The System had a great week but faltered yesterday. Today there are not many good picks. Starting with $500 the system is now up to $425 after less than 2 months.

Best Favorite: SD -143

Best Underdog: SF +130

Best Longshot: Tex +180, they have only a 36% chance of winning but the money line makes it a good bet.

Weekend Series

2007-05-25T06:55:00.000-07:00

The Twins are facing the Blue Jays this weekend. The Jays aren’t playing very well and Baker is facing rookie Jesse Litsch, I have the Twins as 56% favorites.

Litsch looks like he will have a 2:1 K to BB ratio with very good control with a about a 52% GB percentage.

Gardy is still pitching Ortiz this weekend even though the Twins had an off day, so all of the pitchers will get an extra days rest. 3 days rest was enough in the past, and now 4 days rest is not enough?

He has to learn to pitch his best starters more often. There is no reason that the Santana shouldn't have many more starts than Ortiz by the end of the season. But it doesn’t look that way. A strategy of utilizing your worst player as much as your best player is not an efficient way of garnering more wins. So fa rthis season Santana has 10 starts and Ortiz 9. Ortiz will be tied with Santana after tomorrow's game.

Reusse said that he was told that 'Ortiz had a good bullpen session". That is why he is not being skipped in the rotation. That makes as much sense as me saying they should start Crain because he is a starter in MLB 2k7 on my XBox and he had a good season. Both are not real life situations.

Pick of the Day: by the Baseball System

Its always tough to pick favorites but there are a couple good favorite bets tonight.

NYN over Fla -125

Bos over Tex -190 this game has tough odds but I have Boston as a 70% favorite.

There are 2 good underdog games.

TB over CHA +115

Hou over Ariz +107

I have both of these teams as slight favorites.

So far this season the System is doing great. It has soom good days and bad days but is doing very well in the long run.

Twins Win

2007-05-23T14:59:00.000-07:00

The Twins were patient again against Robinson Tejeda. They scored 5 runs off of him and knocked him out after 3 innings. He threw 86 pitches and averaged 4.5 pitches per plate appearance!!!

This is another good sign from the Twins. Patience at the plate equals more runs.

Boof gets the win and Nathan gets the save after facing Sammy Sosa as the go ahead run in the bottom of the 9th.

Twins Pitchers

2007-05-23T13:46:00.000-07:00

Ponson has finally been jettisoned, about 2 months too late. Ortiz and Silva have been getting knocked around as of late after very good starts. But that was to be expected. The both were getting a little bit of luck to keep their ERAs around 3.

Thier DIPS ERA's were much higher and they finally have ERAs closer to how they have been pitching. In the future I would expect Ortiz and Silva to keep their ERAs around 4.7 to 5.2 That wouldn't be too bad but it was not a very cost effective way of building a pitching staff.

Garza, Baker, Slowey or Perkins could have filled those roster spots and would have pitched just as well if not better and done it for about 1/10th the price.

With all of that being said I think Silva has pitched much better than I expected.

Now we just need to start scoring more runs.

Twins win....through patience!!!

2007-05-19T11:34:00.000-07:00

The Twins showed some patience and actually scored some runs. Torii hit the big Grand Slam but it was the at bats by Cuddyer and Morneau that were the key.

Cuddyer worked out a walk and Morneau then had a very patient at bat. He fouled off some tough pitches and did not swing and balls. He walked to load the bases then Torii got his big hit. It was on the 2nd pitch but it was a hitters pitch and he crushed it.

Quarter of the season:1987

2007-05-17T15:52:00.000-07:00

20 years ago after ¼ of the season the Twins also lost to Cleveland to fall to 20-20. They fell to 5th place and 3.5 games back.

Today they lost to Cleveland to fall to 18-22. Thay are still in 4th place, 7games back.

In 1987 Greg Swindell beat Bert Blyleven 6-3 before a raucous crowd of 7,401.

Corey Snyder went 3 for 3, hitting 3 homeruns. Snyder hit 2 off of Bert and 1 off of Mark Portugal. Mel Hall also hit a homerun as did someone named Tony Bernazard.

Swindell pitched a complete game, giving up a homerun to Laudner and walking none with 7 strikeouts.

The starting shortstop for the Tribe was a young Julio Franco.

The Indians “improved” to 13-27. This was a Cleveland team that was on the cover of Sports Illustrated before the season started with the heading: “INDIAN UPRISING" and the sub-headline, "Believe it! Cleveland is the best team in the American League!"

Cleveland lost 101 games in 1987.

Joe Morgan is still an idiot

2007-05-14T09:39:00.000-07:00

The Twins won. And they should have won. They were facing a pitcher called up just for 1 start and the Twins hit him and the Tiger relievers hard.

But according to Joe it was because the "ball was always up". He went on and on about how the Tigers pitchers kept the ball up. And instead of just saying the Tigers were leaving the ball up, because that can happen, he became a detective and figured out the real reason.

According to Joe, the real reason the pitches were up was because the mound level had changed. He had no evidence to back the this up. And if he did he did not tell us the evidence. So he was blaming the Tigers bad pitching on the Twins' ground crew.

But wouldn't the Tigers pitchers been affected by this the previous 2 games? Not according to Joe. The change took place after Saturday's game, again no evidence presented.

But wouldn't the Twins' pitchers be affected by this? Not according to Emmy winner Joe Morgan. This is the Twins home park so they would be use to the difference. But Joe, how could they be use to the difference if it had just happened?

So given no evidence he, in effect, blames the grounds crew for the Tigers poor pitching. Yes Joe, 2+2 =9.

Could you imagine him as a doctor.

"Doctor Morgan, my toe hurts."
"You broke it."

"Really, it just feels like I stubbed it."

"Its broken. Someone attacked you and broke your toe."

"I don't remember that."

"Its broken."

Best Headline ever!!

2007-05-13T19:58:00.000-07:00

"Royals To Get A Taste Of Angels' Colon"

New Poll

2007-05-11T07:59:00.000-07:00

There is a new poll to the right. The results of the last poll showed that most people wanted Tyner either in AAA, out of the lineup or batting last. But a couple of idiots actually wanted Tyner leading off.

I didn't know Gardy read my site.

20 Years ago

2007-05-11T07:34:00.000-07:00

20 years ago the Twins were also 17-17 and coming off of a loss. They were also in 4th place but only 2 games out in 1987 as opposed to 4.5 out today. Yet they still won the World Series and are still doing better than at this time last year.

But, this year the competition is much better so the oulook isn't as good, especially if the Twins continue to fail to score runs.

The Twins have no power and rarely walk. That is a combination for a 4th place finish.

The System has had a good week so far and a good season. The last picks I posted were good. There are a few decent ones today.

Best Favorite: Cleveland -130
Best Dog: Kansas City +163
Good Dog: Baltimore +145
Twins: Take the Twins -200. Johan is a heavy favorite but the System has the Twins with a 70% chance of winning.

Patience Pays off

2007-05-09T09:54:00.000-07:00

The Twins finally score some runs and win. I have been harping on patience at the plate and it looks like it finally paid off.

They were very patient with Vazquez. He threw over a 100 pitches in 7 innings and the Twins saw 4.5 pitches per plate appearance. Though they never really "got" to Vasquez he did come out after the 7th which allowed the Twins to tee off against the Sox' Bullpen, scoring 6 runs in less than 3 innings.

The fact that the Twins worked the count vs Vasquez led to the Twins seeing inferior pitchers like Macdougal. Patience works.

Pick Of the Day:

Best Favorite: Yankees, Mussina -200
Good Favorite: Boston, Daisuke -173

Best Longshot: Washington, Bergmann +190

Twins: Min is a decent bet if you get good odds at -128

Game 28, 1987

2007-05-04T14:11:00.000-07:00

The 1987 Twins played their 28th game on May 8th. They lost to the Yankess after Jeff Reardon gave up 6 runs in the 9th inning. He faced 9 batters, and retired 3 of them. He allowed 2 hits, both homeruns and walked 4, 1 intentional. The outing raised his ERA to 9.24.

It wasn't the best outing of his career.

Mark Portugal started the game and pitched into the 7th before giving up back to back homeruns to former Twin , Gary Ward and future Twin Mike Pagliarulo. Portugal gave way to Keith Atherton Who pitched 1.2 innings but was pulled for Reardon after loading the bases in the 8th.

Reardon got out of the jam but eventually gave up the lead in the 9th and gave up a walk-off grand slam to Pags with 2 outs in the 9th.

The loss dropped the Twins to 15-13. Good for 3rd place in the West and only a 1.2 game behind California and Kansas City.

Home run facts about Kent Hrbek

2007-04-27T07:46:00.000-07:00

Kent Hrbek hit 293 career homeruns, all with the Minnesota Twins. 156 of them were hit in the Dome and 235 of them were hit off of righties.

He hit 4 walk off homeruns. And, if you can believe it, 2 inside the park homeruns. The first inside the park homerun was hit Tuesday September 11, 1984 off of Charlie Liebrandt. It came in the 7th inning and scored Mickey Hatcher ahead of him.

Hit hit the most homeruns, 35, against Baltimore. And the most he hit against 1 single pitcher was 7 off of future Twin, Jack Morris.

His very first homerun came off of George Frazier on August 24th, 1981. It gave the Twins a 3-2 lead in the 12th inning beating the Yankees.

His last homerun came about 13 years later on August 6, 1994. It was off of Melido Perez in the Dome.

3 of his homeruns were pinch hit homeruns.

Today in Twins History: 1987

2007-04-26T20:22:00.000-07:00

The Twins win 10-5, beating California to move out of a tie for 1st place in the AL West to move 1 game ahead of the Angels.

Blyleven gives up 3 of his 46 homeruns allowed, after setting a record by giving up 50 the season before. He didn’t pitch too poorly but George Frazier got the Win after blowing the save in the 7th.

The offensive hero for the Twins was DH Roy Smalley, going 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 doubles and driving in 3. Steve Lombardozzi hit his first homerun of the season.

Kent Hrbek stole is 2nd base of the season. He ended up the season with 5 SB and 2 CS. It was a straight steal of 2nd. Maybe it was the element of surprise.

Twins Win

2007-04-26T14:51:00.000-07:00

The offense comes through "cough" and Redmond knocked a single to right to score Morneau with 1 out in the 11th.

If I was pitching to Redmond I would have 2 right fielders. That dude hits it to right more than seems possible.

Torii Hit in the face

2007-04-26T13:00:00.000-07:00

The Twins are struggling to score runs again. But even worse news, Torii Hunter was hit in the mouth by a pitch and was taken to the hospital.

This is what it says on ESPN.com

"Twins star Torii Hunter was hit by a pitch in the mouth from Kansas City's Zack Greinke on Thursday and was taken to a hospital, where he received three stitches.

Hunter was cut on the inside of his mouth. He was listed as day-to-day.
Leading off the bottom of the second inning, Hunter took a 2-2 fastball directly to the mouth. After gathering himself, he took a couple of steps toward Greinke.
Hunter then dropped to the turf near home plate as manager Ron Gardenhire and Minnesota's medical staff ran onto the field.

A stunned-looking Hunter needed a towel to clean up the blood, and Greinke and Royals infielders came over to check on him. After a few minutes, Hunter walked off the field on his own power and received a standing ovation."

Bert agrees with me

2007-04-26T08:18:00.000-07:00

Just a quick note, as I am very busy today.

But during last nights game Bert mention something that I have been talking about. He found it odd that the Twins had not been making opposing pitchers work, that they were not seeing a lot of pitches. He focused on how the starters had only pitched 50-60 pitches by the 5th inning.

The 1 problem is that he did not make a judgement on it but was merely making an observation.

Perez, who averages 3.7 pitches per PA in his career, averaged 3.3 last night.

New Low

2007-04-25T06:49:00.000-07:00

The Twins lost again. The offense is really failing this team. As I said previously I think the problem is the hitters unwillingness to work the count and take walks.

But a team can not contend if a player like Jason Tyner is your DH and you bat him in the lead off position. This season he is projected to creat 3.5 runs per 27 outs. Last year, in a career year, he created 5 runs per 27 outs. It was a career year and he was slightly above average.

Last season was an abberation. There is no evidence that he will not continue to have an OBP in the low .300s and a SLG to match.

The leadoff batter has more plate appearances than any other player. He should be 1 of your best players at getting on base. Tyner does not do that. If he had to play batting him last is the best option.

This day in History: 1987

2007-04-25T06:45:00.000-07:00

Jeff Reardon got his first win as a Twin. But it came at the expense of blowing a save for Mike Smithson. He gave up 2 homeruns for a total of 3 runs over 2 innings. Luckily the Twins loaded the bases and Tom Brunansky scored on a hit by Mark Davidson to end the game with one out.

Slick fielding Devon White hit 1 homerun in his rookie season and Jack Howell hit another homerun as the provided the power and offense for the Angels.

I am getting impatient with the Twin's impatience

2007-04-24T19:32:00.000-07:00

As I write this the Twins are about to lose to someone named Fausto Carmona. He hasn't won in a year, and its not because of bad luck, he has a career ERA of 5.42. Again the Twins showed no patience just seeing 3.3 pitches per plate appearance against a pitcher who averages 3.9 pitches per PA in his career.

Impatience is killing the offense on this team, and I think it stems from the manager. Gardy obviously doesn't appreciate patient hitters nor does understand the importance of patience and walking. This is evident in the fact that he has Tyner batting leadoff. Tyner has a career OBA of .310 but he has 56 career SBs.

The league average OBA over the last few years is .333. He is not even average at getting on base and Gardy leads him off.

Baseball has changed. The stolen base and bunt are not as important as they use to be. But Gardy, and he is not alone in this belief, bellieves it is still 1975 when homeruns were much more rare and the stolen base was more important.

Get with the times.

The Twins just lost.

The Twins rank 27th in the league in walks.

Morneau

2007-04-24T08:37:00.000-07:00

Justin seems to be choking so far this year. I feel like he is really pressing when he has runners in scoring position. He seems to be swinging at bad pitches and not working the count.

Overall he has a respectable batting line of .274/.361./507.

With runners in scoring position his line is .185/.315/.296. Pretty miserable and it gets worse. He has walked 5 times in this situation and 3 of those times are by intentional walk. So his OBA becomes .241. Basically he has been worthless in in these situations.

He has to start realizing that he has to be more patient. He will start seeing better pitches and will start walking more. And in the long run become a more productive "clutch" hitter.

Twins Lose in KC

2007-04-23T08:08:00.000-07:00

The Twins lost the 3rd game of the series to someone called Jorge De La Rosa. Here is a pitcher who walks nearly 6 batters per 9 innings in his career. Here is a pitcher who averages over 4 pitches per PA over his career. Here is a pitcher who has a career 5.43 ERA. Here is a pitcher who has a K:BB ratio of 1.2:1.

Here is a team of Twins hitters who continually swung at the first pitch, who did not work the count, who had only 3.1 pitcher per plate appearance and frankly embarassed themselves scoring just 1 run off of Jorge De La Rosa. It was hard to watch.

So far Morneau is having a decent season but I am worried about one aspect of his game. He seems to be swinging often when there are runners in scoring position. Instead of working the count and getting a good pitch to hit or even walking, he seems to swing at balls way out of the strikezone. I don't know if he is pressing or just feels like he has to be the guy to drive in the runs.

That first at bat in the first inning, with the bases loaded, was a prime example of what I was talking about.

Boof Pitches, Twins still win

2007-04-22T12:19:00.000-07:00

I was able to watch the Twins game on FSN's new "Squeeze Play". It as a good way to watch a game if you weren't able to see the game originally.

Boof actually pitched pretty good. 2 of the 5 runs were unearned and he had a 7:1 K:BB ratio. That was good to see, a majority of those strikeouts were on his excellent curveball. Yes he did give up 2 more homeruns.

I believe the homeruns will normalize and his homerun rate will drop for the rest of the season. At this point he has a homerun per flyball % of 39.4%. The league average is around 11%. And it has been statistically shown that a pitcher does not control the HR per flyball percentage so this should normalize and Boof will be a quality pitcher.

Little known facts: Gary Gaetti

2007-04-20T14:21:00.000-07:00

Throughout his career Gary led the league in only 4 different "categories".

In 1982 he led the AL in SAc Flies with 13. In 1984 he led the AL in Games Played with 162. In 1987 he led the league in Ground into Double Plays with 25. And in 1999 the oldest player in the NL.

I can attest to the double plays. He killed many a rally for me after Hrbek reached base playing Pursue the Pennant baseball.

This day in Twin's history

2007-04-20T14:10:00.000-07:00

20 years ago today the Twins knocked out future Twin Mike Morgan in the first inning without retiring a batter. He gave up 6 runs to take the loss. Gary Gaetti and Roy Smalley provided the 1st inning offense with a homerun each.

Another future Twin John Moses went 4 for 5 in a losing effort.

Trivia Question: Who was the Twin's 4th outfielder in 1987, measured by the number of games played in the outfield? I bet you're wrong, click here for the answer.

Tyner never walks.

2007-04-20T09:22:00.001-07:00

Tyner is a patient at the plate as I am holding a plate at Old Country Buffet. He currently has less walks than Cirillo and White. And both have already spent significant time on the DL.

I hate Tyner and then Gardy compounds the mistake that Tyner is basically a 5th outfielder by batting him 2nd. Why?

The lineup adjustments are generally overated but I would really change it by batting Mauer 2nd and move everyone else up 1 spot and drop Tyner to the 9th spot. It would give everyone an extra 17 to 18 plate appearances per season. And it would minimize Tyner's effect on the offense by reducing the number of PAs he has during the season by about 90 , if he played the whole season.

In an everyday lineup like that with all of the hitters moving up1 spot and the best 4 hitters getting extra PAs the lineup from 2 to 5 would score an extra 16 runs.

It doesn't seem like much but with the other hitter moving up a spot the amount of runs would increase it a bit more, closer to 20 runs in a season which equals about 2 wins. 2 wins can mean a lot.

Pick of the Day

2007-04-20T08:12:00.000-07:00

If you bet the farm yesterday on my Twins pick you won another farm. But you were nervous there in the 9th.

The System is 9-4 so far this year. I won't show all picks but there are 3 good bets today.

Best underdog: Toronto, they are a slight dog but the System has them at a 3:2 favorite.
Best bet: Pit over LAD, good odds on this bet.
Best favorite: Phi over Cin, even though Howard is out. I think the System sees through Lohse's good early start to the season.

Can Nathan turn it around?

2007-04-19T12:39:00.000-07:00

Yes!!!

I wrote about BAPIP in an article last June in "No Defense for Crain" so I won't go over it too much here. But I think it is important to note it when talking about Nathan's trouble's so far this year, they are earily similar to Crain's

It is important to note that Crain improved last year after I posted that article and that I believe the same thing will happen happen to Joe this year.

Nathan has a high BAPIP so far this year, .419. Over 40% of all the balls in play are becoming hits. Combine that with the fact that so far his strikeouts are way down to 3.86 per 9 innings, and you have a pitcher that is not looking good.

Last season he had a BAPIP of .241 and K'ed 12.5 batters per 9 innings. He won't match those numbers but we all know that he will eventually strikeout more hitters and eventually the balls in play will normalize and those hits will become outs.

Its good that it is happening now and the Twins are still winning. When Joe turns it around it will help the Twins even more.

We have nothing to worry about concerning Joe Nathan. The one caveat is that I don't know if Joe is hiding an injury.

Play of the Day: The Twins are favored tonight and I have them at over 2 to 1 favorites and line is -165 so bet the farm.

No other games look too good. The System is up and running again with some adjustements to make it easier to use and to make changes easier. I still have to tweak some of the numbers to include ballpark data and pitcher/batter tendencies. But until then it is still being used.

The System did have the Twins as an underdog last night but did point out that they were a good bet because of the line. It was correct.

Ichiro is overated

2007-04-18T21:47:00.000-07:00

That last pitch from Nathan shows why Ichiro is overrated. He has a 3-0 count, there is 1 out, a runner on thrird and down by 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th. What does he do? He swings and pops out.

Thank you Ichiro. Why would you swing there? You are not a big homerun threat, show some patience and let the players behind you drive you in. Thanks again.

He is a great hitter and a valuable asset but because he rarely walks he is overrated.

The M's just ran themselves out of a rally. Wow.

Nathan saves it again. But he have up 3 hits again. He hasn't looked good. I will go into that on my next post.

Also, Bremer made another mistake. He was talking about Kenji Johjima, how he was now eligible to be in the batting race because of his previous game. Because he had 4 plate appearance the day before he was now eligible to be on the leader board. That is correct. But then he went on to say that it was because the M's hadn't played enough games to qualify, due to all of the snow outs. The number of games the M's have played does not matter. A batter is eligible to be in the batting race if he has at least 3.1 PA per TEAM GAME. So it does not matter how many games a team has played compared to the other teams.

The snow outs had nothing to do with the fact that Johjima was not on the leader board until yesterday. Bremer is a smart guy he should know this. Stuff like that really bothers me.

Why do I hate Tyner?

2007-04-17T20:45:00.000-07:00

I really do. I just hate players that swing at every pitch when they have no power. He will swing at every pitch and he has yet to hit a homerun, at the major league level.

The wierd things I have always liked Luis Rodriguez. He is the exact opposite of Tyner. He works the count, sees a lot of pitches and because of that he has a walk rate twice as good as Tyner's, .093 per PA and .046 respectively. Also, Lrod sees 3.82 pitches per plate appearance and Tyner sees .5 less per PA. His lack of patience hurts this team, especially now that he is hitting at the top of the order.

I don't think Tyner can continue to be a .330 hitter, and he needs to since he never walks and has no power.

I think with playing time Lrod can be a decent backup infielder.

Torii hit a Grand Slam

2007-04-17T20:23:00.000-07:00

He just hit it. Weaver got away with a curve right down the middle on the second pitch then on a 1-2 count Weaver pressed his luck and tossed Torii another curve.

Ooops.

If there is one guy on this team that you don't want to hang a curve to its Torii. The funny thing is, they intentionally walked Morneau to get to Hunter.

Another Ooops.

Nice baserunning

2007-04-13T08:48:00.000-07:00

Carl Crawford did his best Cuddyer impression and ran the Rays out of a big inning last night. It was tied 2-2 in the 9th when Nathan allows a single and then Crawford lines a double to right.

"That'll open the floodgates" Steve said, as we watched the game together. I concurred. I thought it was over, 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. In this situation the Rays have a run expectancy of 2.0363. So on average they will score 2 runs.

Yet Crawford kept running to third. Then back to second, yet he did not run back to second with the same enthusiasm that he ran past second.

The throw came in from the outfield Mauer tagged the lead runner and threw to second to complete the improbable and completely stupid double play.

At first, I thought it was completely stupid. It was. Crawfford should have just walked into second. But something else was going on here, Crawford had some sort of brainfart.

When I saw the replay on Baseball Tonight they showed Crawford running from second to third, which is stupid in its own right. He never looked up to see the lead runner, it was almost as if, he did not realize there was another runner. Even so, what was he thinking trying to stretch it to a triple?

Cuddyer has a good arm, there are no outs and there is a runner in front of him.

But if you watch it again it looks like he was going to keep running home. He came to third intending to round third. He rounded second and then came at third at an angle that told me he was going to keep running. I'd be surprised if he intended to slide into third, he did not look like he was going to.

For some reason I think he planned on running home. As much as this does not make sense, watch him. If you can see the camera on him I think you will agree with me. It was a brainfart.

Bert, Bert, Bert

2007-04-11T18:35:00.000-07:00

He just said that if Ramon Ortiz doesn't get hurt he will pitch 200 innings this year.

Generally all starting pitchers get 200 innings if they don't get hurt and stay in the rotation.

Thats like saying if I eat 1o Big Macs today I will gain even more weight.

Bert is a keen observer of the obvious.

Sabermetric moment of the year...so far

2007-04-11T18:26:00.000-07:00

During Tuesday nights game, Damon came up w/ 2 guys on and no outs with NY leading 3-0.

Bert said "Damon will be bunting here."

I was surprised because I thought their was no way I would ever bunt with Damon in the Yankees lineup, especially up 3-0. Maybe if I was down by a run in the 9th inning or it was tied. Otherwise why would you ever bunt with anyone with that lineup?

Damon took the first pitch and Bert was very surprised and couldn't believe he wasn't bunting, especially "only being up 3 runs".

The next pitch was hit for a homerun. Don't Bunt.

Bert and his focus on wins.

2007-04-11T08:18:00.000-07:00

Last night, during the game, Bert kept extolling the virtues of Pettitte. There is nothing wrong with that Andy has been an excellent pitcher throughout his career, especially at the major league level.

Bert didn’t extol the fact that Pettitte had a great ERA over his career of 3.80, giving him an ERA+ of 119. He did not extol his great control, great K:BB ratio or his ability to keep the ball in the park which are all the things a pitcher can control. But Bert went on and on about Andy’s wins and winning percentage.

That is the one thing that he cannot control. Andy is 187-104 but if he would have had neutral run support he would have been 150-109. Bert is 287-250 but if he would have had neutral run support he would have been 324-228. Bert and Andy cannot control their run support. So wins is not a good way to determine the value of a pitcher.

If there is anyone who should understand that it is Bert. Bert is now being blocked from the Hall of Fame because he wasn’t a great pitcher, because he did not win enough games. If Bert thinks he deserves to be in the Hall than he should really start adjusting his thinking on how he rates pitchers.

Who knows how many wins Bert would have had if would have had Pettitte’s run support.

Gardy doesn't understand sample size.

2007-04-10T20:46:00.000-07:00

I was listening to the pre-game on the radio before tonights game that made me understand a little more of the brain process of Gardenhire. He just doesn't understand sample size and statistics.

He stated that he should have taken Ponson out sooner but he didn't want Guerrier to face Arod because Arod hits him so well. I knew that Arod couldn't have faced him too many times since Guerrier hasn't been around too long, so I looked it up. Arod has 4 at-bats vs Guerrier.

Now in those at-bats Arod has 2 hits that were homeruns. So yes he has hit him well. But what he must understand is that 4 ABs really doesn't tell us much of how well a hitter does against a certain pitcher.

Generally, batter vs pitcher stats are not good determining factors because the sample size is much too small. You really need a lot of plate appearances to determine how good a hitter is. That number is difficult to determine but the higher the better so 4 ABs really is not enough.

Maybe managers should have to start taking some math classes before they are given a job.

Twins win.

2007-04-05T09:25:00.000-07:00

Twins win again. Ortiz pitched very well. It was good to see that our #2 and 3 starters actually pitched better than Santana. I am not a big Ortiz fan but at the price some other pitchers were going for this off-season he was a pretty good deal.

He will continue to pitch well if he can keep his K to BB ratio at 4:1, even if is 3:1 he will probably have a good year.

Is it me or are the strikezones even smaller this year?

I was watching Baseball Tonight and heard a good one last night. Buster Olney was mentioning how good a manager Jim Tracy was in 1-run games after Pittsburgh defeated Houston 5-4. He said Jim Tracy was known for being a good manager in 1-run games.

I thought this statement was laughable because 1-run games are generally decided by luck more so than managing. So in effect, he is saying Jim Tracy is the luckiest manager in baseball.

If there is some skill in managing 1-run games I would like to know that skill. What does Jim Tracy do that other managers don’t do?

I think I know. He has his closer give Craig Biggio a fat pitch that he hit for a homerun that turns a 5-3 game into a 5-4 game. I guess Tracy is a great manager in 1-run games, truly a genius.

I looked up his record in one run games. It actually is pretty good at 166-137. Basically he had a great record in 2 seasons and the rest of the time he hovered around .500 in 1-run games the rest of his career. He is one lucky SOB.

If you have questions on why 1-run games are considered lucky let me know.

Alone in 1st place

2007-04-04T10:53:00.000-07:00

The Twins are alone in first place agaijn, just like they ended last season. The bullpen pulled through for the Twins yesterday after Boof had some control issues.

I think he is having trouble controlling his eating, wow!!!

The PoD lost yesterday and it is a close bet again today. None of these have been good bets so far and todays isn't good either. It is another pickem' with the Twins as a very slight favorite so take the dog and Baltimore +120.

Opening night review

2007-04-03T06:26:00.000-07:00

Its great to get a win. The offense looked good, the bullpen looked good and Santana was Santana.

Johan starts out poorly every spring. So this was not a surprise. The surprise was that he got the win because the Twins scored 7 runs and it should have been more.

Morneau was thrown out on the basebaths twice. Once at second which was a bad call and at least very close and took a great throw to nail him. But on the second one he was out by a long shot and shouldn't even been sent home on that play. There are at least 4 reasons why you don't send him.

1. Justin isn't known for his wheels.
2. The situation would have been, bases loaded with 1 out. In a situation like that there is a run expectency of 1.65 runs. So on average with the bases loaded and 1 out a team would score 1.65 runs. At this point Bedard seemed to be on the ropes. Torii was up and had already hit a HR off of Bedard.
3. A play at the plate always risks injury in a collision to the runner or the catcher. Why take that chance in this situation, especially with the reigning MVP.
4. Lasty, the ball was a well hit grounder hit right at the RF. It was not a difficult play to make. He did not have to go to his left or right. He simply charged in and threw home. It was not even a good throw and he was out by 6 feet.

Is Scotty Ulger the second coming of Al Newman. Is it really that diificult to find a decent 3rd base coach?

Twins Pick of the day. I have the Twins as a very slight favorite in this game. Bet the O's +120. The Pick was correct yesterday.

Play of the Day

2007-04-02T13:06:00.000-07:00

The play of the day will be somewhat limited for a while as input more and more teams into the process and refine the way it works as more players get more playing time.

As of now I have the Twins as a 64.4% chance of winning. The line is Santana -220. So it would be a large bet to win 100. But a fairly safe bet.

Opening Day

2007-04-02T08:45:00.000-07:00

Its here.

I haven't finished my preview but I think that you could read other accounts and get the same or better information. Plus I have been too busy.

Basically the outfiled is good in center and right but again left is the weak spot. But it should improve. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a dropoff by Tori and Cuddy. They bothe had much better seasons than they have ever had before.

The pitching is scary beyond the bullpen and Santana. All I have to say is Silva. Silva is quickly becoming a curse word in my home.

Quick predictions. Clevland and the Twins fight it out over the entire season. If I had to bet I would bet on Cleveland winning the Central. But they have been my pick the last few years.

Chicago is getting old fast, Detroit is bound to come back to earth.

Lets go Twins.

Middle Infield preview

2007-03-22T14:19:00.000-07:00

The main question with the middle infielders is can Bartlett. Can he keep playing at the same level he played at for ½ of a season last year. His numbers will probably drop of some but mix in the fact that plays good defense, he doesn’t have to be platooned and there are no players behind him at his position he will probably get a lot of playing time again.

I hope he gets some days off this year. Last season he played in the Twins last 99 games after being called up. He seemed to tire dramatically dropping off to .228/.259/.267 in September.

He played good defense, displaying great range and had a Zone Rating of .865, among the league leaders. His FRAA was low but should improve. His fielding percentage was slightly below average, but it should improve. At least it was better than that slug, Juan Castro.

This is probably Castillo’s last season with the Twins with Casilla waiting in the wings. Castillo had a down year last year with the glove and the bat. His OBP dropped over 30 points from the previous season and his great fielding dropped dramatically. He had a FRAA against average of +7 the previous 2 seasons but with the Twins last season it was -7. I know I felt like he lost a step in the field and running the bases.

He had a nagging injury most of the season so an improvement is probably this season.

The backups are probably Punto at short and Luis Rodriguez at second. Casilla will probably start the season in the minors.

Clutch hitting

2007-03-21T11:01:00.000-07:00

Is clutch hitting a myth? Id Derek Jeter a clutch hitter. Most "baseball" people, like managers and coaches will say a definate yes. Remember these are the same people who think Juan Pierre is a good lead-off hitter.

Read this article on clutch hitting.

The infield corners: preview.

2007-03-16T13:11:00.000-07:00

Justin Morneau is the reigning MVP so firstbase is obviously a strong position for the Twins. Justin had a breakout season last year. It seemed to come out of nowhere. We all expected him to be a good hitter after taking over for Doug M. But he did not do so well taking over for him.

Justin’s defense was better than advertised, though he doesn’t seem to pick ‘em as well as Douggie did. His offense struggled. He only batted .208 last April and his offense picked up slowly until June & July when he had an OPS over 1.100!!! His power cooled off the last 2 months but he still was hitting well.

I expect another great year out of him. His defense is improving and he is now a legitimate threat to hit a homerun any time is at the plate. No Twin could claim that since the late ‘80s.

Third is manned by the spunky Punto. Some claim that to play 3rd he needs to hit for power. But I don’t agree. I just want the thirdbaseman to play good defense and add something to the team offensively, either with power or by getting on base.

And for most of the season Nick did a great job of providing offense by getting on base at a .400 clip. But he faltered badly in September with a line of .252/.266/.294. Those are Jaun Castro type numbers. Punto ended up with an OBP of .352. That is not that good for a player with no power.

Hopefully he won’t wear down this year. I think the signing of Cirillo should help. Cirillo will probably be DH much of the time vs lefties but he should get some time spelling Punto.

It would be a great platoon since Punto had an AVG and OBP 50 points higher against righthanders and Cirillo has hit over .400 against lefthanders the last couple years.

Punto could probably use more rest this year and Cirillo should fill in that position but I have a feeling that Cirillo will be DH more than playing third.

2007 Twins Preview: Catchers

2007-03-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

The Twins are back and so am I. This year my musings may be a little sparse. I am busier, at work and at home, than I was last year. But I hope to add some original material and keep the blog up to date on standings, game lines, inane commentary, injuries and other Twins’ issues.

I plan on doing a team overview and an AL Central overview. My first step is to look over the Twins position by position starting with Catcher.

The Twins are obviously doing well at the Catcher position. They have an MVP candidate and batting champ in Mauer and very capable veteran back-up in Redmond.

Redmond had a batting average only 6 points less than Mauer’s. But for him to be valuable as a hitter he has to hit that well since he doesn’t do any of the secondary things a hitter needs to do like walk and hit for extra-bases. With that being said he is a better than capable back-up. He is fine defensively, throwing out 1/3 of all base-stealers last year with no errors which is about his career norm.

He is a perfect back-up for Mauer since he is a .332 vs lefties over last 3 years and hit .447 against them last year. Now if we can get Gardy to start platooning him against the tough lefties it would make Mauer a better hitter.

In my eyes Mauer was the MVP last year. But that was already discussed, so I won’t re-hash it.

He has a little speed, a great eye, has some pop in his bat and plays excellent defense. He probably won’t hit .347 again but as he gets older he will likely walk more and hit more homeruns. I look for another great season out of Mauer but the Plexi-glass Principle states that he will come down to earth a bit.

The Twins should still have one of the best Catching tandems in the baseball. Last year the Twins catchers were 3 in OPS but were way ahead of everyone else in OBP, the single most important stat to determine run production.

Mauer and Redmond will continue to be a quality catching tandem. They would be even better if Gardy would learn to platoon them better.

Mauer not MVP caliber???

2006-11-22T09:47:00.000-08:00

I just came in from listening to P.A. & Dubay during lunch. Dubay went on and on about how Justin should be the MVP and mentioned that Jeter was a good choice but Mauer should not even be in the consideration for MVP.

I don’t really know why. He basically was the same hitter as Jeter but better. Of course, he did not have as many RBIs as Jeter but still hit well in the clutch. The callers seemed to agree with him.

I don’t have a big problem with Morneau as MVP but to say that Mauer shouldn’t even be in the running is ridiculous. The comparative value of a Catcher, Shortstop and Firstbaseman is not equal. A great hitting catcher is more valuable than a great hitting shortstop who is more valuable than a great hitting firstbaseman.

As a hitter all of the players are fairly equal all 3 created about the same number of runs per game. Mauer was the best at getting on base while Morneau was the better power hitter. So if their offense was equal then the position they play is very important and Mauer played the most difficult position and he played it much better than the other 2 played their positions.

One caller when on to say, and Dubay agreed with him, that Morneau made the players around him better. How? He claimed that Cuddyer and Hunter saw better pitches. But of course he offered no proof of this. In fact, every study I have seen shows that the next batter has relatively minimal effects on how good a season a hitter has. Also, Cuddyer led the team in pitches per plate appearance. Isn't that some evidence that he wasn't actually "pitched to"?

Mauer was the MVP. The fact that he lost isn’t a big deal, it was and should have been very close. But to totally dismiss him as MVP is stupid, ignorant and embarrassing.

MVP!!! MVP!!!! MVP!!!!

2006-11-22T05:35:00.000-08:00

Morneau won the MVP award. I am surprised because their generally is an east coast bias and I Jeter actually had a better year. I don’t think Justin is a bad choice for MVP but I don’t think he was the best choice. Also, I figured Jeter would win the award as a “lifetime achievement” award, much like when Al Pacino won the Oscar for “Scent of a Woman”. Al didn’t deserve the award that year but he won it on his body of work.

Jeter and Mauer both had better claims to the award. They both had outstanding offensive years, and did it a defensive position. Justin was a great player but does not rank much better than other players at his position while Jeter and Mauer were heads above the other players at their position.

If I was voting I would have had Mauer 1st and Jeter a close 2nd.

But it is nice to see a Twin win the MVP and the Cy Young awards. It really was a great season, no matter how it ended.

The bad news is that the Twins did sign Silva to the $4 option.

Silva's option

2006-10-12T07:42:00.000-07:00

The Twins have an option to sign Silva to a $4.3 million contract. Don't do it.

Silva is a pitcher who had 1 lucky year 2 years ago. They should have traded him then, when he had value. Any time a non-k pitcher has a good year trade him. He will mostly likely never repeat that season again.

I would take bets that Wang's ERA will be much higher next season, closer to 5 than 4.
Silva is the worst kind of pitcher, a flyball pitcher who can't strike anyone out. There is no reason to keep him on the team.

Even if he has naked pictures of Ryan and Gardy it is not worth keeping him around. Even if he was paid the league minimum I would not keep him.
The combination of young pitchers the Twins have will not perform worse than Silva and will do so at 1/10 th price.

He may be the nicest guy in the world but nice is not a stat that can be measured. And I don't think being nice prevents any runs from being scored.

Also, signing Torii was not the worst thing the Twins could have done. There is no guarantee they could have signed 1 of the quality centerfielders who are available. He is overpaid but would you want to go into next season w/ Tyner and/or Ford as your centerfielder option?

Off season

2006-10-10T07:15:00.000-07:00

I won't be posting much during the off season. Only if big news happens and during awards periods.

I may be working on few studies too.

Its over

2006-10-09T07:35:00.000-07:00

What an ending. In the words of Bart Simpson it was “craptacular”.

It was a bad ending to a great season. What a season it was. With the wonderful turnaround in June after getting rid of dead weight the Twins ended up winning the division but then were swept in the playoffs.

They couldn’t have looked much worse doing it either.

They played bad defense and made many errors and a huge mental error by Torii.

They played poor offense. They showed no patience at the plate and often got themselves out. It doesn’t show but Morneau did hit the ball very good all series. They only got 1 hit with runners in scoring position in 3 games and hit 4 solo homeruns.

They pitched very good but not quite good enough.

They did not do the “little things” well. And they have done the “little things” well since Gardy began managing this team. They couldn’t bunt when they wanted to and shouldn’t have bunted or stolen at times they did. Castillo was caught stealing in the 1st game and Tori bunted with no out and a runner on second. He was one of the Twins’ hottest hitters down the stretch. He should be the last person bunting when it is so obvious the Twins need to score runs.

Gardy made some poor decisions, mostly with his bullpen. He did not use his best relievers in high leverage situations.

I don’t know if he gets the team ready mentally. Every playoff series the Twins play the Twins look absolutely lost in the field and at the plate. Even the series they won in 2002 they made tons of mistakes. I think this is something that needs to be looked into.

With all of that being said anything can happen in a short series. Even the worst team has a fair chance to beat the best team. So 2 evenly matched teams can easily have a sweep, it happens.

It was still a great and fun season to watch.

Here is to a great run this year and an even better run next year.

Cheers.

Torii

2006-10-05T07:37:00.000-07:00

He tries too hard. He had no chance at the ball yesterday and yet he still dives for it and let it get past him. It was a huge mistake. It was unexcusable to take that chance in that situation.

There were 2 outs and a runner on first. He was already playing a very deep outfield so that an extra base hit can be cutoff easier so the runner on first won't score. So it is already iin his head that he should keep any balls hit in frontof him.

In this situation he just needed to stop the ball from getting past him, the out was secondary. It as a huge mental gaff.

If it was a physical mistake it would be easier to swallow. If he was just unable to get to a ball in the gap it would have been easier to understand. But this was dumb.

Then he is up in the next inning. I knew he would try to hard to win the game with 1 swing of the bat. All the pitcher had to do was keep the ball out of the strikezone. Torii swung and missed on all 3 pitces, the last one was 3 feet outside.

Don't try so damn hard. If you are going to try hard at something try to do something with value like try to be patient at the plate.

The Twins have won 3 in a row many times this season and Oakland has lost 3 in a row also. It can happen. The odds are slim but don't give up yet. The Twins have beaten longer odds already this season.

Joke of the day

2006-10-04T08:41:00.000-07:00

What do you to do an elephant with 3 balls?

Read comments for the answer.

Relax

2006-10-04T04:45:00.000-07:00

It’s just 1 game. Sure it would have been great to the first game, but winning it doesn’t guarantee anything. It was a typical 1 run game where 1 team gets a bloop hit that leads to a run and the other team hits a few balls hard that are outs.

It happens.

People are saying that Zito pitched a great game. There is a fine line between pitching a good game and not hitting well. It is a chicken and egg situation.

Santana actually pitched better than Zito but Oakland took advantage of the bad pitches that Santana made while the Twins flailed away at balls outside the strikezone and missed pitches that should have been hit hard.

The Twins offense failed in this game. The 3-4-5 hitters only got 1 hit and it was a Metrodome triple. It would be easy to blame Gardy for some of his managerial mistakes but it is the offense which really caused the loss.

Gardy may have had a hand in that though. The key spot in the 1st was when Punto swung at some bad pitches and made an out when he should have walked. And Castillo was caught stealing.

Zito was all over the place. Stealing there was not a high percentage play. Gardy said Luis has the “green light” and thought that Zito would throw a curve in that spot. Gardy should have given him the red light when he saw that Zito did not have command of his pitches.

The Twins should have been more patient. Zito had walked 99 men in during the season. That is second in the league and twice as many as Santana. You know this going into the game so show some damn patience. Too many Twins swung at bad pitches in hitter’s counts. Causing the Twins to either make and out or getting another strike.

At one point in the game 50% of Zito’s pitches were balls. The Twins should have drawn 6 walks that game. That is the hitter’s fault and maybe the coaching staff’s fault. That is when the coaches should get on the hitters to be more patient. 43% of his pitches were balls. And many of the strikes were balls too.

1 more mistake was not bringing in Nathan in the 9th. The game is 2-1 and this is the most important inning of the game. It has to stay close to have a chance. Since it is a home game Nathan will not get a chance to get a save so it is important now to pitch him in high leverage situations. With Thomas up and a close game there is no other more important spot in the game. Bring in Nathan.

I like Crain but he is not the same pitcher as Nathan. Neshek would have been a good choice also, even for 1 batter.

The good thing Gardy did was to put his best lineup out there. It was very good that he had White and Nevin in the lineup.

All is not over for the Twins. Oakland really has a miserable offense against righthanders and if they pitch more carefully to Thomas, i.e. no more off speed stuff high and inside, the Twins should be fine.

Thomas is there only threat, don’t let him beat you. If the count is 3-1 don’t pitch a strike.

Pitching Matchups

2006-10-03T06:17:00.000-07:00

Pitching matchups, games 3 and 4 still have a question about who is pitching.

Santana vs Zito:
Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but the A’s are a 1run better against lefties than righties. I do think it is still a good matchup for Johan. I believe his control will work against the A’s.
The Twins are slightly worse against lefties but Zito has a FIP 1 run higher than his ERA. He really did not pitch that well this season. Also, he is an extreme flyball pitcher while the Twins are an extreme groundball hitting team. This favors the Twins.

Huge edge to the Twins.

Bonser vs Loaiza:
Bonser has pitched much better down the stretch. His FIP is about 4.5. The A’s are much worse against righthanders and if Boof can keep the ball down and in the strikezone he should do well.
Loaiza has also pitched much better after the all-star break and he has a respectable FIP of 4.17. But the Twins do better against righthanders than the A’s do.

Edge Twins.

Harden v Radke:
Both pitchers have been injured this season so it is difficult to know how good they both are. Both have similar stats and pitched better after the all star break. Harden is probably the better pitcher but again the Twins have a better offense against righties than Oakland does.
Since both will be watched carefully from the dugout the Twins may have the edge because of t heir better and deeper bullpen.

Slight Edge Twins

Haren v Silva:
As above the Haren is the better pitcher but the Twins have a better offense. Haren has a much better FIP than Silva and Silva really is bad. But I think Silva matches up well against Oakland because he is always around the strikezone. His stats are slightly better against Oakland this year.

Slight Edge Oakland

AL Preview

2006-10-02T11:33:00.000-07:00

The system has the Twins as big favorite tommorrow. It has them w/ a nearly 70% chance of winning.

If the Twins were playing NewYork it would be the Yankees at a 52% favorite.

I think winning the division will pay off.

The Yankees are only 56% over Detroit.

I have the Twins at a 23% chance of sweeping, 53% chance of winning in 4 and 67% in 5 games.

I have the Yankees at a 23% chance of sweeping, 52% chance of winning in 4 and 56% in 5 games.

Detroit has a decent chance of beating the Yankees!!!

These numbers are based upon the pitching probables on ESPN.com.

Central Division champs

2006-10-01T20:55:00.000-07:00

It is the latest ever that a team has taken over first place without being in first place at any point in the season.

It was a truly amazing turn of events. The Twins were down 12 games at one point in the season with 2 teams ahead of them. Then they take 1 of 3 on a weekend series while the Tigers are playing the last place team, unbelievably!!!

I didn't see much of the Twins this weekend, I was out of town at a wedding. So I can't say too much about the games specifically.

The Twins will be playing the A's in the day games this week. We get screwed because NY gets all of th enight games. Couldn't they mix it up a bit?

Oh, Mauer also became the first Catcher ever to lead the league in batting!!!

Silva Sucks

2006-09-28T06:25:00.000-07:00

The good thing about Silva losing last night is that it tales us 1 step closer to Silva not starting in the playoffs. He will get another start again on Sunday.

I can only hope that he will give up 5 runs again. Maybe then Gardy will realize that Silva does not have what it takes to bett the Yanks.

Baker and Garza both have FIP ERAs much better than Silva's. All have high ERAs but Silva has shown that he is a consistently bad pitcher. Garza is a much better option and if Radke can't start I would even start Baker over Silva. Baker has an ERA of 6.80 but his FIP is 4.99. He pitched more when the Twins had a horrible defense and hasn't had many chances to improve on his ERA since the defense has improved.

Santana, Bonser, Radke, Garza, Baker.

Is Joe Mauer the MVP? Yes!!!

2006-09-28T05:41:00.000-07:00

Reasons why Joe Mauer should be the AL MVP:

He is a vital player on a playoff team.

He is 7th in RC per game while playing the most difficult defensive position, catcher.

He is contending for a batting title and will probably win it. Making him the only AL catcher ever to win a batting title.

He is 3rd in the league in OBP but close to the leader.

He is 8th in the league in OPS. And again he did that while playing catcher.

His OPS is nearly .150 points better with runners in scoring position.

Reasons why Joe Mauer should not be the AL MVP:

He is last among MVP contenders in HRs and RBIs.

He may not even be the best player on his team.

He is 18th in total runs created.

Some of his production was at DH, decreasing his value some.

Jeter & Ortiz have higher VORPs than Joe.

But Joe Mauer is my MVP. To put up the numbers he has while playing catcher is spectacular. He really has no weakness. He has some power, hits for average, has patience at the plate, he is a good baserunner and is very good defensively.

I don’t think he will win the MVP because his Triple Crown numbers are low, except for average. But the stats beyond the Triple Crown are very impressive.

Is Jeter the MVP?

2006-09-28T05:20:00.000-07:00

Reasons why Derek Jeter should be the AL MVP:

He is the best player on the best team in the league.

He is 8th in RC per game and 3rd in total runs created while playing as a shortstop.

He is contending for a batting title.

He nearly has 100 RBIs, and has done this from the 2nd spot in the lineup.

His OPS is nearly .200 points better with runners in scoring position.

He has great intangibles.

Reasons why Derek Jeter should not be the AL MVP:

He is 16th in OPS, last among all MVP candidates.

He has a lot of talent around him and the team probably still would have made the playoffs without him.

His RBIs are as much a product of his team as it is clutch hitting.

His OPS actually dips a little in Close and Late situations.

He won a Gold Glove last year but at best he is an average defensive shortstop.

Intangibles are highly over-rated. He is a great player but has always been over-rated.

Reasons why Jermaine Dye should not be the AL MVP

2006-09-28T05:09:00.000-07:00

Reasons why Jermaine Dye should not be the AL MVP:

He was part of a team that choked down the stretch and is not going to make the playoffs.

He has a high OPS but is only 12th in the league in OBP.

He has high Triple Crown numbers but is not close to leading the league in any of them. Ortiz beats him in HR & RBIs, Morneau beats him in Avg and RBIs.

He is 5th in the league in Runs Created per out which is great but Jeter and Mauer, who play more important defensive roles are right on his heels.

Twin's clinch

2006-09-26T06:44:00.000-07:00

The Twins won last night 8-1 and Cleveland beat Chicago 14-1. The magic number is now zero. That means the Twins are in the playoffs, probably as the wildcard team.

I don't think the Twins should do anything too stupid to catch the Tigers. Take it easy and set up your playoff rotation. They will probably have to play the Yankees. That's OK the Twins are as good as the Yankees, but anything can happen ion a short series.

Magic Number

2006-09-25T08:30:00.000-07:00

I am pretty busy this week so I will get to the MVP discussion, but not today.

The Twin's magic number is 2 with a week to go. They are 1.5 games behind Detroit and will make it 1 game if they win today.

If they tie Detroit, Detroit wins the division. So the Twins are actually 2.5 games back.

Winning the division would be nice but making the playoffs after the start the Twins had is good enough for me.

Why Jermaine Dye should be MVP.

2006-09-20T06:10:00.000-07:00

Reasons why Jermaine Dye should be the AL MVP:

He is on a playoff contending team and is one of the best players on the team.

He is in the top 10 in the Triple Crown stats. He is 7th in average, 2nd in homeruns and 3rd in RBI’s.

He is 3rd in the league with an OPS of 1.025. He is 2nd in the league with a SLG of .637

He is the best offensive RF in the league and defensively he is a former Gold Glove winner who may have lost a step but still has a great arm.

He has been a quality hitter with runners in scoring position with an OPS of 1.185 and only has a slight drop in close and late situations.

Why Morneau shouldn't be MVP

2006-09-19T05:15:00.000-07:00

Con arguments against Justin as the MVP:

1. He is in the top 10 in the Triple Crown stats but he is only 19th in the stat most correlated to scoring runs, OBP

2. Jermaine Dye and ARod have more homeruns than Justin and nearly as many RBIs.

3. Dye has an OPS of 1.020 and Justin’s is .948. And Dye plays a more difficult and important defensive position.

4. Justin may be the best offensive player on his team he arguably is the 3rd most valuable player on the Twins behind Mauer and Santana.

Anther good sports weekend

2006-09-18T05:34:00.000-07:00

The Vikes won, Chicago was swept and The Twins took 3 out of 4 to remain 1 game back from Detroit. All in all, a pretty good sports weekend.

The only loss came from a poor Santana start, but the Twins came back in that one, only to lose a close one.

Baker and Silva pitched very well over the weekend. Both had quality starts.

The Twins start a series with Boston tomorrow. The real news is that Detroit plays Chicago tonight.

It’s tough to know who to root for. If Chicago loses the Twins have a better chance of making the playoffs. If Detroit loses the Twins have a better chance of winning the division and getting some home field advantage in the playoffs.

It’s a win-win situation.

Dick was talking about Punto possibly winning a Gold Glove. Usually I think of that as hyperbole but he really made some amazing plays over the weekend. And nothing gets down the line on him. He won’t win it but I think he is the only Twin deserving of a Gold Glove.

On to another topic.

How bad of an announcer is Bill Maas? I am going to start keeping better track of the stupid things the announcers say. I hate it when I know the rules better than the “expert” or I can see the obvious that they don’t understand.

Bill kept saying that Gamble had to have thrown that lateral on his own. No. For one thing I don’t believe any player would just throw the ball away. For another thing the Panthers had a player running back towards the where Gamble was trying to throw it. Punt teams don’t normally do that. Obviously, it was a planned play.

He also thought it was an illegal touch to touch the ball while a player’s feet were in the endzone. What?!?!

Arguments for Morneau as the MVP.

2006-09-15T06:00:00.000-07:00

The first player I will examine in the MVP race is Justin Morneau. He has improved so much this and is a big reason the Twins had such a large turnaround since their dismal start. As he heated up the Twins heated up.

Pro arguments for Justin:

1. He has been very durable and has only missed 5 games this season. He has played in over 80 games in a row.

2. He is in the top 10 in the Triple Crown stats. He is 5th in average, 10th in homeruns and 2nd in RBIs.

3. He is the best offensive first baseman in the league. He has the highest VORP (value over replacement player) at 1st, in the league at 52.3. Defensively he does not hurt the team. He is 2nd in Zone rating but last with 8 errors at first but the difference between first and last is only 5 errors. That is a de minimis amount.

4. He is the best offensive player on a playoff team.

5. He has performed adequately in the clutch. He is a better hitter with runners in scoring position and hit about the same in Close & Late situations. Which is difficult to do since batters are facing the teams best pitchers in those situations.

Daily Picks

2006-09-15T05:41:00.000-07:00

The picks today have the 1st 80%. I hope that works.

Toronto 80.2% -260
Arizona 68.3% -175
Chicago Sox 61.1% -115
Cincinnati 58.2% -150
NY Mets 57.8% -175
LA Angels 55.6% -130
Minnesota 54.7% -270
Philadelphia 54.5% 120
Washington 50.4% -125

Daily Pick

2006-09-14T08:54:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was much better w/ a 9-2 record. But 1 high percentage pick lost.

NY Yankees 68.5% -320
Kansas City 67.6% 110
Minnesota 59.2% -115
Cincinnati 54.1% -125
Colorado 54.0% 170
Philadelphia 52.1% 115

KC, Colorado & Philly all seem to be good bets today.

Bad News

2006-09-14T05:25:00.000-07:00

The Twins lost 1-0. Morneau made a very dumb baserunning play trying to stretch a single to a double. I did not see it but I am told that it wasn't even close.

The worst news is that Liriano is hurt again. There is some talk of "Tommy John" surgery but we don't know for sure yet.

If it is Tommy John surgery it means he will miss all of next year but will come back as good as or better than before. Otherwise I expect him back next spring. We just don't know yet.

Ths Sox gained a game on the Twins but the Tigers lost. No ground was gained there. The Twins are still at an 80% chance of making the playoffs. So don't lose hope.

Daily Pick

2006-09-13T10:23:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was the worst day yet. But don't be afraid to bet on the 70% or greater.

Today's picks.

#2Milwaukee 77.2% -135
Minnesota 74.4% -165
Cleveland 71.9% -210
Colorado 61.7% 127
LA Dodgers 57.4% -173
Baltimore 56.5% -126
San Diego 56.1% -140
Houston 55.4% -138
#1Pittsburgh 54.7% 105
NY Mets 52.6% -105
Atlanta 52.3% -115
Chicago Sox 50.8% 105
Detroit 50.2% -126

MVP RaCE

2006-09-13T07:38:00.000-07:00

There has been a lot of talk of the MVP lately. I think the best 4 candidates are Morneau, Mauer, Jeter & Dye. Over the next few days I will talk of each players pros & cons on why they should be considered for MVP.

Some of the players I am leaving off who are also deserving are Ramirez, Ortiz, Hafner & Sizemore. Part of the reason is that they are not on playoff teams. This is something that I don’t really subscribe to, but for the sake of argument I will now. Ortiz is a DH and though Ramirez is a great hitter he plays the OF like he is a DH.

It is hard for me to give the MVP to a DH. I do think Hafner would be deserving of it if Cleveland was in the playoff race and if he hadn’t gotten injured. He has 42 HRs and 117 RBIs and he is hitting 0.308/0.439/0.659/1.097. That is a stellar season.

I am also leaving Santana out of the discussion. Pitchers have their own award and while I think a pitcher can be an MVP he has to be head and shoulders above everyone else. Meaninig Santana would have to have an ERA around 2.00 for me to vote for him for MVP

Daily Pick

2006-09-12T09:09:00.000-07:00

The Pick is somewhat time consuming so from now on I will just post the System's picks. At the end of the season I will give a rundown of how the System is doing.

So far if you had bet all of the System's 60% or better picks you would have made money. But under 60% the money losses are large.

Here are today's pick. The Yanks are the highest favorites so far.

NY Yankees 78.1% -250
LA Dodgers 73.5% -155
Cleveland 65.6% -210
Minnesota 61.7% -127
Arizona 59.3% -155
Chicago Sox 59.2% 106
Houston 56.3% -102
Texas 55.5% 125
Florida 55.4% -118
San Diego 52.5% -120
Toronto 52.3% 114

2 wins in 1 night.

2006-09-12T05:12:00.000-07:00

The Vikes won and the Twins won. What a great night for sports in MN. Silva pitched another good game. That was good to see, or was it.

There is talk of him being the 3rd pitcher in the playoffs because Gardy said this about Silva "He's got a track record of getting people out.” Does he really?

No. He has a career ERA of 4.34 which is respectable. But that includes a lot of luck last year. That luck has turned on him this year to give him an ERA over 6.

His track record this year is that he can’t get people out. The OPS against him is .930. He makes everyone facing him look like Vlad Guerrero.

Do we want that going into the playoffs? No, unless the Twins face Oakland. I had a theory yesterday that Silva may actually pitch well against Oakland because they are such a patient team. Because he throws strikes he would get ahead of hitters.

I don’t know if that is true but it seemed to be yesterday.

I am still not on the Silva bandwagon but it is good that he is pitching well down the stretch.

The Twins are now 1.5 games out first and have a 1.5 game lead over Chicago in the wild card race. The have over an 80% chance of making the playoffs.

2 Back

2006-09-11T06:51:00.000-07:00

The Twins are only 2 out of the division lead. And now Chicago is 1.5 games behind the Twins. Santana is looking great. He is 6-0 w/ a 1.25 ERA in his last 7 games. Things are looking great.

I feel very good about the Twins chances of winning the division and feel even better about making the playoffs in any way. But we must remember the Twins are closer to Chicago, and dropping out of the playoffs than they are to winning the division.

I still like their chances. Before yesterdays game Baseball Prospectus had the Twins with an 11% chance of winning the division and a total of a 67% chance of making the playoffs. Those numbers have gone up since yesterday. The Tigers are still have an 87% chance of making the playoffs. But it is dropping.

The Twins face Oakland this week and Liriano will return on Wednesday. But Silva is still in the rotation. Here are the matchups.
Mon. 11 Silva (8-13) Blanton (15-10)
Tue. 12 Guerrier (0-0) Saarloos (7-7)
Wed. 13 Liriano (12-3) Haren (13-11)

Then we face Cleveland. They are playing better and are still a good team, though they just lost their best hitter in Hafner.

Do you realize that there are only 6 series left?